Political Stench

  There are only a handful of places on earth that have its own, one of a kind, smell. One of those places for me, was Sportsmans park Racetrack in Cicero Illinois.  The scent in that place was an unmistakeable mix of moldy wood, stale smoke, and of course, horse manure.  It was built nearly a century ago as a Dog track. In fact, Al Capone used to fix races there by feeding grease laden hamburger to all the dogs in a race , except the one he was going to bet.  You have to admire his moxie.   Bagholder spent many a summer night playing the harness races there. Being an older facility, in a poor part of town they didn't have much for public restrooms. The few they did have, had very few stalls & they sure didn't clean them very often. If you needed one of those stalls, it was difficult to find one habitable. It usually ended up being a game of deciding which toilet stall was the least compromised. You open one stall & think, no fckn way - until you open the next one. 

  As of this writing, it seems the remaining choices for the next President are limited to Obama, Gingrich, Romney & Santorum.  The remaining field vying for the right to become our next president is very reminiscent of being at Sportsmans park & needing to take a dump.  The choices range from stalls with an overflowing sea of disease & pestilence, to just plain full of shit. Examining the final four……

Santorum.  The flavor of the month.  This guy reminds me of Thomas Carcetti, the fictional mayor of Baltimore in HBO's epic series, the Wire. Like Carcetti, he is in touch with his feminine side, leaving him about as uninspiring as a politician can be. Although, it appears, he has been blessed by the Evangelicals. Perhaps its because he is the only candidate of the four remaining who actually believes what he says, notwithstanding the fact some of his beliefs are extreme.  While the other three are just salesman with a pitch, Santorum's message is much more consistent; thus he comes off as more genuine. Having said that, I have seen much of what comes out of his mouth … in those stalls at the racetrack. 

Romney. We have said it before, but it bears repeating; there is no discernible difference between this guy & Obama, except Romney could have his hands on the wheel for eight years. This scares the daylights out of Bagholder. Sure, he would aim money at more traditionally conservative causes, but get spending under control - not a chance. Stop this nations imperialistic ways - no way. Shrink the size of Gman - not happening.  Cut taxes - guess again. While this guy speaks a like a Republican, his deeds would say otherwise. Combine his serial hypocrisy with  his neatly manicured image, and a strong argument could be made he is at best, an egomaniac - and at worst, a complete psychopath. 

Gingrich.  While he is the most dangerous of the four candidates, he also has the most upside. Of the four, he is clearly the most ethically challenged, which is telling, when you consider we are talking about four politicians. It does appear the US electorate has sized him up & then rejected him.  I find Irony in this country rejecting him for his baggage. We did elect Clinton, an obvious reprobate.  So why does Newt's personal baggage matter?  His message much scare a lot of people. At this point it time, it does not appear likely he can get the nomination.   Then again, there were some stalls I never thought I would use either...

Obama.   After 3 plus years of his command, a few things are obvious. He is no visionary.  He is no agent of change. He is the choice of the establishment. He is more interested in himself, than this country - evidenced by his multiple extensive vacations.  If re-elected, he would no longer need to keep up pretenses of caring about the direction this country is headed. Vacations would come even more frequently, and last longer. The country would be moving more from existing momentum, than from his guiding hand. It has to be viewed positively, that unlike the others, he is guaranteed gone in four years. In light of that fact, when compared to the other three stooges above - he just might be the shiniest Turd in the punchbowl. 

  While the electorate seems satisfied with playing  which stall is the least compromised, Bagholder knows there is no winning that game. We here at mytwocent$ will continue to endorse the only true agent of change, the most philosophically consistent candidate, the only candidate who would actually get us out of wars, and the only candidate who would actually cut spending. We refer to the 24 karat candidate - Ron Paul

  Nothing to fear from this 24k commode..... Vote Ron Paul

Its About Time

      Just about everything we do has an element of Time to it. We work for X dollars/Hour. We pay bills a month at a time.  We take a weeks vacation. Even money has a Time component, commonly known as interest. Gold has often been compared to money in a negative light because "Gold" pays no interest. While that fact mat be true, it fails to take into account the time component of Gold. Understanding precisely how Gold & Time interact is critical to comprehending why the dollar price of gold, over the next decade, will continue accelerating to the upside. 

  Gold has a very unique property in that it captures the value of the increased productivity of individuals over time. For example, Gold bought a lot more cotton after the cotton gin was invented, because the productivity of your average cotton farmer skyrocketed.  Increased productivity is really just a savings in Time. Less Time required to produce the same amount of goods. A stable currency (like Gold) allows the savings in Time to be captured by anyone.  Paper money is supposed to function the same way. Yet, we live in a world where our paper money buys less and less. The reason Gold is able to capture value where paper money loses it, is because the supply (thanks to mother nature) of Gold is very stable. In like fashion, an exponentially growing supply of paper currency enables the paper aristocracy to steal all the value from the productivity gains of the working class. 

  A basic tenet of economics states: price (value) is a function of supply and demand.  If you have a stable supply of something, like Gold - you effectively change one of the 3 variables in the preceding equation into a constant. As a consequence, the two variables left will move in tandem, meaning either both go up - or both go down. So, lets plug in a real life example into the above tenet. Lets say the productivity of the working class is in demand & we are trying to determine what it should be valued at in terms of Gold. Since we know the Gold supply is a constant, The two remaining variables (productivity & value) must travel in the same direction. Find a way to increase productivity and the value of Gold must go up. Thanks to technological advances and more efficiently run businesses, the increased productivity of the working class guarantees Gold will buy more in the future than it does today. 

  This property is what makes Gold the Ideal storage facility for your labor. In a way, Gold is a place to keep Time, which is all we really have. With each passing day, the time we have left on this planet diminishes. In paradoxical fashion, this has the effect of making our remaining time, more valuable. And like Time, Gold will just become more valuable the longer you live. 

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  There is another very under rated feature of the current Gold bull market which manifests itself as a form of timing. The movements of the 21st century Gold bull, on the surface, may appear random & chaotic. But like most living things, there are discernible patterns of movement repeated over and over. Cycles, or stated another way, this Gold bull has Rhythm.  Look at a gold chart above for the last decade, and pick out the last 5 major peaks. (sep 2011, nov 2009, mar 2008, may 2006, dec 2004).  Pay particular attention to the Time between each peak. They are all 19-22 months apart. If that is not rhythm, I don't know what is. 

 Long term, the fundamentals in a given market will determine what direction a market trends. In the short term however, movements within a trending market are driven by the emotions of those involved. Long rallies ignite GREED, sharp pullbacks turn that greed into FEAR, and then sustained sideways movement turns that fear into APATHY.  Once apathy takes root, you can be sure another rally is on the way & the cycle has begun anew.  The last 8 years in the Gold market has seen this greed-fear-apathy cycle playout many times. Right now, the Gold market is in between fear & apathy. A few more months of sideways trading will increase the level of apathy to a point where a long rally is imminent. 

  Breaking down the 19-22 month cycles Time-wise within a bull market, you get about 1/3 greed, 1/3 fear, and 1/3 apathy. The irony of that split lies in the fact that, despite being a bull market, the bulls are getting what they want only 1/3 of the time, while 2/3 of the time - the bears are having it their way. Because bulls don't spend much Time getting what they want, many get demoralized, and ultimately thrown off the bull. The bears, meanwhile, are energized by a market giving them what they want, most of the Time. So the bears get sucked in to the wrong side of the market, while the weak handed bulls get thrown off. Classic bull market action.  

   Considering the last major peak was Sep 2011, the Rhythm of this beast suggests the next major peak will be in spring 2013 - a little over a year from now.  The way we see it, here at Mytwocent$ - there will be about 4-6 more months of apathy breeding. Followed by about a 6-8 month rally, taking Gold to new highs sometime next spring. Having seen this bull move Time and Time again, Bagholder can attest; higher prices are on the way.  With human nature as a constant, you can be sure - this Time - will be no different.

The Fifth Dimension

"There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. A dimension not only of sight and sound, but of mind. Next stop, the Twilight Zone

    We here at Mytwocent$ always like to acknowledge excellence. With that in mind we will dedicate today's blog to one of the most influential television shows in Bagholder's life: Rod Serling's the Twilight Zone The show routinely explored all facets of human frailty, often from multiple perspectives.  Many of the episodes had an obvious psychological bent. In like fashion, today's blog will have strong psychological overtones.

CUE: Rod Serling's voice….

  When running an empire, Its one thing to enslave the masses into a life of servitude.  Its something all together different to make them content with that life……

  Consider, if you will, Gas prices.   While most folks think its market forces which dictate those prices, we here in the Twilight Zone know better.   The powers that be (TPTB) raise prices while simultaneously  conditioning the masses into willingly accepting the higher prices.  TPTB understand its not high or low prices that affects the national mood one way , or the other. Much more important is whether prices are rising or falling. Stated another way, prices could be low, but rising; and the masses will be complaining. On the flip side, prices could be high, but falling; and people will be content. At first glance this might not make sense, as it is very counter-intuitive. Think about it this way: nobody would be happy to pay $4 Gallon for gas today. However, run the price up to $5 for a month or two & then they let it fall to $4, and just like that, the masses would be happy to pay $4 a gallon.  TPTB get what they want - $4 gallon with content customers …. while the masses get what they want - falling prices and healthier psyches (specious though it may be). 

 In true Twilight zone fashion, Its a mind game TPTB play over & over, and yet the masses never catch on. Another example is Unemployment which spent most of the last decade hovering around 5%.  This means  an unemployment rate of 7.5% throws 50% more people out of work. Nobody would be happy with that. Unless of course, TPTB run the Unemployment rate up to 10% first.  Then they let it fall back to 7.5% and everybody is happy.  Same game as the gas prices, and the same result. More people out of work, but the masses are ok with it. These are examples of applied herd  psychology with the intended purpose of making the masses more content (less trouble) in their servitude. Precisely because of that fact, Bagholder can guarantee both gas prices & unemployment will be high, but falling come election day.  TPTB do not stop at numbers games either, they run just as many games with words….

  Directly from the Hitler playbook of "the bigger the lie, the more they believe";  we have the recent settlement between Gman and the US banks who raped & pillaged the mortgage market for the last decade. Gman, with his infinite wisdom, has traded away future prosecutions for Robosigning, foreclosure fraud, or any other crimes related to the collapse of the real estate market for a paltry $25 billion. Even worse,  only 5.8 billion is payable now.  JP could pay the 5.8 by themselves with about 2 weeks of revenues. By the time the fine gets divided amongst all the banks involved, JP's share of the fine will equate to maybe 2 hours of revenue.  In essence, their punishment is a slap on the wrist. Yet,  Obama actually had the temerity to gloat about how he was sticking it to the US banks for their despicable behavior.  The masses are spun psychologically to feel better because banks are supposedly getting their "comeuppance", but those same masses are too dim-witted to realize the fine is nothing more than a "get out of jail free card" , the cost of which ($25 billion) is a microscopically  small fraction of what their misdeeds warranted.  

  As you might expect, here in the Twilight Zone,  TPTB also use word games for the purpose of multiplying their wealth. Consider this Zerohedge post which says Gold bugs are now classified by the FBI as Extremists.  This qualifies them for a government paid, middle of the night, black bagging & whisking off to Guantamo whenever Gman decides we need more up close & personal psychological conditioning.  While Gman probably won't resort to that extreme, the possible effects of the extremist label on Gold are worth considering. The new classification will be recognized by critical thinkers as Big brother  propaganda designed to keep a healthy slice of the non-critical thinking populace out of the Gold market. Those same non critical thinkers, meaning the masses, will unknowingly - in the back corners of their mind -  associate owning gold with criminal behavior. This is just another piece of MSM propaganda, no different than any of the other tired old lines like Gold is a barbarous relic, Gold is risky, Gold is a popped bubble, Gold is only owned by evil speculators, etc….  Oh well, it keeps the Gold Bull traveling light.  

  Today, there is no way to avoid the 24/7 onslaught of psychological conditioning by TPTB.  If you can think independently, their propaganda will be recognized for what it is - Lies, intended to misdirect.  If you can't think independently and you believe what you are told,  you will be condemned to a life of perpetual angst.  Psychologists call it a cognitive dissonance, In layman's terms - one of the leading causes of personal stress is when a disconnect exists between what we sense (see & hear) and reality.  For example, Obama says he is punishing the Bankers, people believe him. Yet bankers continue on, business as usual. That is a Disconnect. We are told there is no inflation, yet anyone who has been to the grocery store knows better. That is a disconnect. We are told Gold is a risky investment not worth buying near an all time high price - yet its up 11 years running. That is a disconnect. We are told ours is a better nation because we have open elections where we can choose between two parties, one that represents higher taxes & bigger government and one that represents lower taxes & less government. Yet, no matter who is in charge, government just keeps growing and taxes just keep going up. Just another disconnect - in fact - they are everywhere you look. 

  The societal disconnects that exist today as well as the resultant national angst are products of the 24/7 propaganda/conditioning by our masters.  The disconnects are too painful for the psyche to acknowledge directly, so people just live with the resultant stress.  They walk around angry, and can't figure out why. They are victims trapped in a psychological never-never land of wondering just what is true, and what isn't. Its a miserable place to live, because the only way out is a path too psychologically painful for most folks to follow. So they are condemned to a life, 

in the Twilight Zone……..

Unscripted Excellence

 Yesterday was one of those days for Golf fans, that just don't come along very often. The two best golfers  (Mickelson & Tiger) of the last 20 years paired together on the last day at one of golfs most cherished venues.  The tournament was on the line Sunday at Pebble Beach,  a course they have both "owned" earlier in their careers.  What an unexpected treat. It was a matchup for the ages.  The 30 foot putt Mickey made after Tiger's chip-in, is proof enough, this universe has balance. 

   Congratulations are due Phil Mickelson, who won going away. It is the best I have seen him play in quite a while, giving credence to the argument he may yet have a Major or two left in him.  As people go, Mickelson just oozes class.  Always has. The first decade of his career he was known as the best player never to win a major. It was branded on him, like a scarlet letter. He took it like a man. When he finally got that monkey off his back  at the 2004 Masters with an array of Birdies & Eagles in the final round, well,  it brought tears to Bagholder's eyes. Yesterday, he again had the whole package on display. He was striping drives, his irons were precise, and he was making 30-footers like they were tap-ins. He, unlike his opponent, was master of his domain - nuance intended.  We here at Mytwocent$ could not be happier for Mickelson. 

  As for his opponent, Tiger, many would claim he is broken man. Tiger is an  exposed fraud, with the removed veneer leaving him a mental cripple, or so the argument goes.  Consequently, most believe his days of dominating the PGA tour are over. I disagree. As an investor in greatness, I am going long Tiger Woods right here. He simply has too much talent & he is the best clutch putter I have ever seen.  Anyone who understands what it takes to play Golf at the highest level would tell you, the game is a mental one.  Yet, Tiger was able dominate the tour while living a duplicitous life.  Juggling multiple women is hardly a recipe for a clear head. In fact, it would have to be a living hell. His career golf accomplishments are staggering, when you consider he did it while his inner demons were running the show.

  I suspect, Tiger has spent the last couple years with some of the best shrinks money can buy. Hopefully, his spiritual healing has taken root and he is no longer on the road to Dante's 8th level of hell where a gilded lead suit awaits him. High priced psychiatry makes it likely he will be teeing it up in the future with a lot fewer personal issues. When you combine the best natural talent WITH a healthy psyche, there is no limit to what can be accomplished. With that in mind,  Bagholder is now on record as stating he  believes Tiger has a minimum of 6 more Majors in his career & will again dominate the tour.  

 Of course, I have been wrong before…In that vein, congratulations are also due the New York football Giants.  They were the better team last Sunday, Sorry Patriot fans…..