Political Prizefight

  

  Looking forward to the November elections for President, We here at Mytwocent$ thought it would be interesting to breakdown the election as the heavyweight fight we wish it was. Leaving corruption aside, when fights are scored - they are scored by the round. The winner gets 10 and the loser gets 9, unless it is a complete blowout, which is  scored 10-8.   What follows are 13 (rounds?) items which will influence the outcome of the upcoming election - scored Boxing style. 

Round 1 Political skills.  

    What better place to start than with the fact Obama was able  capture the presidency four years ago with the thinnest of resumes - steamrolling the Hillary express in the process. With the exception of Bill Clinton, that kind of political skill is unmatched our lifetime. Romney has his party's nomination by default,  its his turn - just like it was mcains turn 4 years ago. While Romney may be accomplished in the real world, Obama is accomplished in the political world. Big difference. 10-9 Obama. 

Round 2.  VP's

     Is there really any doubt who would make a better president - Biden or Ryan. One is a new vibrant on the rise Ayn Rand disciple, the other an old out of touch career politician with a claim to fame of being this nations most accomplished plagiarist. Sounds like a Romney knockout, except recent history would argue picking a young, vibrant, vice presidential running mate is a surefire way to lose.  Palin, Edwards, Ferraro, and Quayle all lost VP bids to older, experienced, more accomplished opponents. Fail to learn from the lessons of history, and ruin awaits. In deference to history, Score this 10-9 Obama. 

Round 3 Leadership

     Great leaders are resourceful. They have an uncanny ability to unite, meaning they get more from the whole, than the sum of the parts. And most importantly, they live in the moment. We would argue all of those traits could be found in Romney - a man who has successfully turned around multiple companies.  On the other hand Obama - the consummate divider - keeps a very tightly controlled image. That is a sure sign of someone who never resides in the present. Image freaks are wheedlers ….always measuring, primping, persuading, manipulating, using, selling, acting, but never being. Mentally, they are always somewhere else. Its why Obama struggles without a teleprompter. His Ego demands he stay on a script (where he is comfortable), instead of just being himself (where he is not comfortable). While this makes Obama a master manipulator, it also makes him a poor leader. 10-9 Romney

Round 4 Demographics

    This one intrigues Bagholder. There are a number of groups who went big for Obama 4 years ago, which today, are probably feeling a little disenfranchised. For example, the young. How many young college graduates in debt up to their eyeballs with student loans, struggling in the worst job market in decades, are really anxious to pull the lever for more of the same?  How about all those folks who voted for  'Change' 4 years ago.  That is a huge group of people feeling cheated. These are just a couple examples of the groups which will be abandoning Obama in droves. In the meantime, Bagholder cannot think of a single group who went Republican 4 years ago, that plan on switching to Obama.  10-9 Romney

Round 5 Clinton

   In honor of the most skilled politician in my lifetime …Its the Economy, stupid. The electorate votes their pocketbook, end of story. You would think that make this a 10-8 round for Romney, but the gross number of folks receiving government checks has grown significantly on Obama's watch.  It hardly seems likely the welfare class will vote themselves out of a check. Then you must consider Gman's (ministry of truth?) July report, stating the rate of inflation in the US is zero. Bagholder is in awe of the temerity (another Clinton specialty) required to actually claim Zero inflation in the United States today.  Then again, the bigger the Lie, the more they believe. The fact most people blindly believe nonsense like this disturbs Bagholder. Meaning too many people, can be convinced too easily, this economy is in recovery.  10-9 Romney

Round 6   Numbers 

    Its really a question of which numbers will hold sway. Bagholder believes 11 million lost jobs on Obama's watch should matter. However, that 11 million is likely trumped by the 21 million currently working for Gman or receiving unemployment benefits. Bagholder also believes $9 for a box of cereal should matter, but that $9 is trumped by the 48 million currently receiving  SNAP cards.  Bagholder believes Trillion dollar deficits should matter. However those trillions are likely trumped by the millions of teachers, junior Gmen, and Gman contractors those trillions payoff.  Perhaps the most important numbers though, are 4 & 8, as in Obama could only perpetrate another 4 years of damage, while Romney, theoretically, could be at the wheel for 8.  Bagholder can do the four standing on his head. Obama 10-9

Round 7 Focus

     In today's America, it is virtually impossible to succeed in anything without working hard. I read a NY Times article recently which stated Obama has played hundreds of rounds of Golf since becoming President. Speaking as a Golf Junkie, How hard could this guy be working?  Contrast with Romney… He has successfully ran multiple companies because he understands part of diligence is accepting responsibility for what is, and moving forward. This is where the big O fails. In the last 4 years Bagholder cannot recall one instance where Obama has owned this economy. Even today, he still blames everyone else for this economy, while acting like he is the only President in history to be handed a bag of shit by his predecessor. There is no moving forward with Obama, because he will not accept the reality of what is. This round goes 10-9 Romney

     

Round 8 Reagan

  Are you better off today than 4 years ago? It worked for Reagan In 1980, as people looked around and saw mass unemployment & soaring inflation. That vision was confirmed by Gmans own statistics, so Carter never had a chance. Today, those same stats (unemployment & inflation) are conveniently (for Obama) not tracked the same way. In fact they are rigged purposely lower to paint a  prettier picture than what actually exists. In contrast to 1980, People today are left wondering if they should believe the inflation & mass unemployment they see with their own eyes, or the statistics  they hear from Gman, which say there is no inflation & unemployment is falling. As poor as the economy ACTUALLY is today, this should be a 10-8 round for Romney. With Most voters predisposed to believe what they hear rather than what they see; Obama has a lot better chance than Carter. So we score it 10-9 Romney  

Round 9 Morality

       It is difficult to believe either of these two could win a morality contest. Romney seems to have it, when its convenient; which at a minimum makes him both disingenuous & hypocritical. Interesting though is his choice of Ryan as VP, because Bagholder has never met a Rand disciple who didn't have a moral compass. It seems as though Romney is aware of his glaring weakness, and sees Ryan as the cure for what ails him. This self-awareness puts him ahead of Obama in the morality department. Obama has never had to be introspective,  living his whole life in the fantasy worlds of academics & politics. Those are two worlds where individuality is dismissed in favor of group think, in other words……. no morality required. 10-9 Romney

Round 10  Beer 

     Speaking as someone who has occasionally tipped a few, with whom (Romney or Obama) would you prefer to share a few pitchers of beer?  Bagholder is not completely convinced Romney is not a Robot built by some wall street techies. He is very machine like in his demeanor. At times he sounds like a recording, of himself. Obama, due to many of the character flaws mentioned here, somehow seems more, well, human. Easier to connect with, dare I say, more likable. While Obama has no chance of getting Bagholder's vote in November, He would get Bagholder's vote in a contest for whom we would like to share a few brewskies.  Score this round Obama 10-9  

Round 11 Electoral Map 

     The map is a daunting one for Romney. He would have to hold ALL the Mccain states AND pull 97 electoral voles from states Mccain lost. The most logical route to 97 would have to include Florida, Ohio, Indiana, N carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin. Obama's well known stepping on the coal industry could cost him in NC, Va, and Oh. Indiana is safely in the Romney column already. Ryan will be needed in Wi just as the Republican machine will be needed in Florida.  Romney has no margin of error, as there are few other states he can be competitive in, let alone win. While it can be done, its the math equivalent of trying to hit a 7 team parlay. Anyone who has ever been to Vegas could tell you, They almost NEVER hit. 10-8 Obama

  

Round 12 Charisma

    Bagholder defines Charisma as the uncanny ability to get people to overlook your bad side, because they really like the good side. Reagan had it because he spoke his mind  in a concise manner. Clinton had it because he could fake sincerity whenever the situation demanded it. As for Obama & Romney, well they only have charisma in small doses. While Obama is incredibly smooth, his disarming manner is not so beguiling as we would overlook his playing hundreds of rounds of golf while the  US economy burns. For the record, what most Americans would describe as a smooth disarming manner, Bagholder would describe as scripted, and therefore disingenuous. Romney is just as disingenuous as Obama. Unlike Obama though, he is comfortable with his own hypocrisy. This allows much more time to focus on others, as opposed to say, preening. 10-9 Romney 

Round 13 Choices

     You want Change? Or more of the same? ….. You want more government in your life? Or a lot more Government in your life? …..  You want to Change Obamacare, or do you like it the way it is?   ….Do you like a  broader tax base with more paying & less taking, or do you like a narrower tax base with those of us who pay, paying more - and those who take, taking more? ….  You want to elect a guy who has a track record of turning around broken companies, or a guy with a 4 year track record of blaming his predecessor?  …..While the choices above are not the choices Bagholder would like, they are still clear-cut and thus easy to make. We can elect someone who who knows how to do, or we can elect someone who knows how to blame. Gee, let me think …. Romney 10-8

  The next President, by a score of 124-121, will be Mitt Romney.

    

Bagholder Originals

Random thoughts.......

Nature does not allow anything to grow at an exponential rate indefinitely. There are no exceptions. The proliferation of debt and the supply of paper dollars are two real life examples of exponential growth, nearing a swift & painful end...... 

The single most important story in the news the last 6 months is the drought in the midwest. The single most important news story the next six months will be the resultant increase in food prices..... 

George Orwell's book 1984 is so brilliant, the powers that be have been using it as a blueprint to control the general public for decades.....

The downside of living in a consumer culture is people are trained to see life thru a filter of what they like & dislike, instead of seeing the world as it is. There is a steep price to pay for it:  As individuals, we lose inner peace..... As a nation, it makes us hollow & angry....

When someone comes at you with a hot tip, which cant lose - bet the other way. Bagholder flushed thou$and$ at Chicago area horse tracks as a teen learning that very lesson. Hindsight being what it is, those thou$and$ were a small price to pay..... 

The Olympic games are fascinating, because in life - the best at anything , is an absolute pleasure to watch.....

Not to be overlooked about the olympics, is how they instill the importance of Gold & Silver deep into the psyches of the general public..... 

Seems the powers that be have decided interest rates will remain at record lows for another 2.5 years regardless of what realities appear in the interim. This is the exact same attitude that sunk the titanic.....

Test scores of students in this country have been falling relative to other nations for decades. Its because the educational system in this country is not designed to educate students, it is there to indoctrinate youths with the ways of institution..... 

Buy the end of this bull market in Gold & Silver, the most popular unit of weight in which they will be quoted & traded will be the milligram.....

Raping and Pillaging

  After the fall of the Roman empire, the world slid into the "dark ages" - a period seemingly bereft of humanity. The European continent was ruled by various clans. It was customary when one clan took over another, one of the first things they did - was rape all the women. Not enough to just kill all the men, no they had to rape all the women too. Thats how life went for centuries, it was a crude savage world. They called it the dark ages for a reason. Trading Silver (not owning Silver) is very much like living in the dark ages. There are 2 clans each looking to rape & pillage the other.  Bulls and Bears. Like clans, they draw lines, and stakeout territory. The $27 level, where silver sits right now - is huge. Just look at the chart above. 

 Silver is knocking on the proverbial door of $27 for the 4th time in the last 2 years.  There is tremendous support at that level - which also means there are lots of sell-stops set just below the $27 level. The paper aristocracy (leader of the bears) views those sell-stops like a hungry dog views red meat. The silver price won't just meander across the $27 level, triggering those stops & lightening the bull in the process. No, silver is a much more vicious beast. When it breaks, corrections of 25-30% in days are the norm. The way the banker clan sees it,  It is simply not enough to kill all the weak bull hands with their stops just below $27, no they will have to rape their women too. For this reason, the probability of a sojourn down to $19-$21 area is becoming increasingly likely. 

  I have said it before, but it bears repeating; Silver is a mans market. The corrections & the volatility within are like no other market. The $48 spring high of 2011 has left Silver in correction mode for 14 months now. Silver has the exact opposite problem of Gold. Gold has arguably corrected far enough down in terms of price, but has only been in correction mode for 9 months. Silver, on the other hand, has been in correction mode for 14 months; plenty of time to thin ranks. The problem is prior corrections in this Bull have seen the silver price contract by over 50% from peak to trough. We don't have that here. We are 14 months in, but silver has only contracted 45% to date. The banker clan, who control this market, will not be satisfied with a correction only in terms of time. Remember: they are raping & pillaging. When they rape, they want both tits in their mouth. TIME and PRICE. Only a trip to the $19-$21 range would qualify this a man size correction (60%) in terms of price. 

 The psychological pain on tap for the bulls the next few months, may well be unbearable. A trip down to long term support in the $19-$21 range will have the effect of thinning the bull ranks significantly, to be sure. The bear camp, will be growing, with technical traders & momentum traders piling on the short side. Observe the manner in which silver has bounced off $27 in the past, only to gather itself & attack that level again & again.     Each time from a lower high. This has left a descending right angle triangle on long term silver charts - an ominous pattern. Meaning, if and when $27 fails, look out below. 

  For all the reasons above, Bagholder is of the opinion long term silver bulls are about to get raped, yet again. You may have noticed an overtly dark tone to todays blog. Speaking as the staunchest of bulls, there is widespread apathy in the bull camp. This, in and of itself, means news isn't all bad for the bulls. If ever there was a recipe for higher prices, thin apathetic bull ranks & swelled bear ranks is it. Those things only exist at major bottoms. We here at Mytwocent$ will be scaling in deeper, all the way down. We suggest you do the same……   

Greece, It all starts with a light envelope

  Or so says the wisdom of Richie......

    

     

     The US media & their masters (the paper aristocracy) would have us believe the dominant economic theme - four years running, is Greece defaulting on their debt, and its supposed impact on the Euro. I am quite sure the Ivory tower types are having quite a laugh shoving the Greece story up our rectums the last four years. After all, it was the Greeks who invented ass-fucking. I, for one - am tired of the Greek gift.  Greece, no matter what the media tells you - simply is not big enough to collapse anything - especially not the euro. Greece represents about 1% (GDP basis) of the European community. Here in the US, this is the math equivalent of Alabama being able to collapse the dollar. It has about as much chance of happening as this kid pictured below does of kicking ass.

  The real issue with Greece is some powerful people, with more money than brains, have booked wagers in the trillions that are tied to the outcome in Greece. In essence, Greece is nothing more than a long drawn out crap game. Assigning blame to Greece is like blaming the dice when you seven out. Sure they turned a seven - but are the dice really to blame for your losses - or are you?  The situation in Greece is really no different. There are large $$ sums bet on whether Greece pays their debts in full, partially, or not at all. There are large $$ sums wagered on whether Greece withdraws & starts their own currency - or continues to get bailed out. There are large $$sums wagered on whether the problem will be contained, or spread to other countries - and which countries? 

  The Greece story drags on year after year with no resolution in sight because The bankers (your casino hosts) would not have a game if there were an actual resolution in Greece. Not only that, when the resolution comes, one side or the other will get skinned. Like the saying goes - you can shear a sheep many times, but only skin him once. The way the paper aristocracy sees it, there is no reason to shut down the casino - especially when you consider there are willing bettors on both sides. This is why the story drags on for years. 

  Occasionally, the Volume level on the Greece story gets kicked up to "ramming speed" levels - like now. This has the effect of getting anyone remotely interested in trading the Euro onto the short side.  The "Euro to zero" mantra has been pushed hard by the Paper Aristocracy. Any reasonable sentient being has to know this means the Paper Aristocracy is on the long side of the Euro. Thats right, while the media chants Euro to Zero, The COT's show the Bankers with a RECORD long Euro position in place. In the meantime the general public dolts, easily swayed by the evening news, are carrying RECORD short positions.  Another fine example of Bankers vs. public.  Gee, I wonder how this trade will end.

  Bagholder goes long the Euro right here, as the idea of a flea speck of a country crashing the system is patently absurd. We will check back before the end of the year on this one.   

Gold update....

 When we last discussed the topic of Gold in late February we suggested Gold would have to spend more time in correction mode. Sure enough, that is what we have seen the last few months.  Apathy is beginning to take root in the hearts of all but the staunchest bulls. We here at Mytwocent$ believe there is a real possibility the intermediate bottom in Gold - meaning one that will hold permanently - is in at $1525. Reasoning as follows:

  Gold traded a whole summer last year around $1525, plus or minus a few percent. In a bull market, once consolidation levels are decisively broken to the upside - the bull doesn't look back. Battle tested Gold veterans remember the fight for $425-$450 back in 2004 & 2005. It took FOREVER for Gold to breach it, but when it did, it was "off to the races".  The battle for $1000 back in 08-09 also seemingly took forever. Again, once it was broken to the upside, the Gold price never got close to $1000 again - see why 2 paragraphs down.  Whats important to remember from the 20 month struggle in 04-05 to best $425-$450 level is the bears could never sell it off more than about 15%.   For 20 months in 08-09 Gold struggled with the $1000 level. In that correction the bears managed to sell it off no more than 24% from its march 08 high. 

   We would suggest the $1900-$2000 level will prove similar to the two levels mentioned above. As of this moment Gold has been sold off 22% from its high in that range last fall. The good news is the 22% off sale is certainly deep enough to qualify as a correction. The bad news is we are only 10 months into the correction. Prior bull behavior (20 month consolidations) suggests we may not see new highs until next spring. WAIT!! Where have I heard that before - Oh, I know - right here. 

 Round numbers, like say $1500 weigh heavily on investors minds for psychological reasons. As Gold takes out one of those round numbers it garners attention. After spending considerable time above those round numbers, those same round numbers start to look like a steal. Who wouldn't want to own Gold at $500? or a $1000?  In like manner, I suspect there is a whole cadre of folks Looking to get long at $1500.  Methinks they will be left standing at the station, waiting for a train that never comes. This will keep the proverbial bull traveling light. 

   Keep in mind also, 3 years running Gold has made important lows in the summer. This pattern is likely to continue, meaning we will likely get another test of the support at $1500 before summer is out. Bagholder believes the reason this Gold Bull makes bottoms in summer is because the bears have to work summers to pay for their poor investment philosophies. In the mean time, Gold bulls are on vacation during the summer - as only they can afford to take vacations, thanks to their wise investment philosophy. Stated another way, in the summer, when the cat is away - the mice will play. 

   Bagholder apologizes for the lack of attention given to his blog recently - he is pre-occupied with starting his own business. A daunting task in this environment, to say the least. Thanks for your understanding. I will post some thoughts on Silver soon.

Animal Spirits

  Science would tell you, Man, when you get right down to it, is an animal. Bagholder, a big believer in science, could not agree more. The behavior of most members of the animal kingdom is relatively simple to predict. The reason for that is the governing behavior of any given animal is usually a primitive one. Pigs can be counted on to be gluttonous, Dogs are unusually loyal, etc. While individual animals are usually driven by one or two such primitive desires, human beings are usually governed by multiple primitive desires at any given time. In other words, we here at Mytwocent$ believe who you are depends on the mix of animals that makeup your psyche. 

   Consider an individual who exhibits  all of the following:   opportunistic (raccoon),  changeable (chameleon)  parasitic (leech), crooked (snake), predatorial (vulture). You might say this individual would make the perfect politician.  Or, how about this guy:  close minded (ostrich), compliant (sheep), terrified (chicken), quiet (mice), gullible (fish), paranoid (deer). The way Bagholder sees it, this describes the current working class here in the United States - you know - the ones who pay the bills.  Contrast with the folks living off the Government tit: gluttonous (pig), parasitic (leech), loud (coyote), lazy (sloth), blood sucking (mosquitos), detached (cat), fornicators (rabbits). Stereotyping groups by the animal traits they exhibit is just the beginning. 

 The real fun is considering individuals as most people have a dozen or more animals in their psyche. The entire mix of animals is relatively tough to put together - even if you know the person. Much easier is identifying the one or two animals that are usually running the show.   After all its one thing to have a touch of paranoia (deer) as part of your psychological makeup. It is something completely different for that paranoia to to be plainly visible in every facet of your life, like a deer. Lets consider someone we all know - Obama. The way Bagholder sees it, he is crooked  (snake), vain (peacock), detached (cat), lazy (sloth), mischievous (monkey) - to name just a handful. The real question is which one of that group is "usually driving the bus" so to speak?  

  The answer to that question, now that he has been the central figure on the political landscape for over four years, should be obvious. Everything the man does is choreographed, everything he says is carefully scripted & delivered in a smooth & disarming manner. However, when pressed (to think on his feet) his true animal ruler takes over. The fact the man can't speak publicly without a teleprompter tells you all you need to know. It is more important for him to control his words (by using a script) than to be himself - and speak his mind. The habitual emphasis on control emanates from one place & one place only - the Ego. Stated another way, vanity, or a peacock,  is the current leader of the free world. 

   The next time you see him talking down to Republicans, as though he is some how more holy. Think peacock.  Next time he delivers a planned speech with his pious smile & nose so far up in the air that - well lets just say if it was raining & he kept his mouth shut, he would drown. Think peacock.  Next time you hear him taking all the credit for the good, while blaming all the bad on others, think peacock. His opponent (Romney) in the upcoming election is really no better. He is, at a minimum opportunistic (raccoon), irritating (fleas), slimy (worm), conniver (bear), with a forked tongue (lizard). He hasn't been around long enough for Bagholder to figure out for sure which animal is running the show - at this point it looks like it could be the raccoon. 

  So the 2012 election is shaping up as a contest between a peacock & raccoon. In the real world I would take the raccoon - in this election, my money is on the peacock. 

Poker Faces

     Bagholder spent much of the last week in the Silicone implant capital of the world - sunny Las Vegas - playing No limit Holdem.  While most people consider Holdem a card game played with people, those of us in the know understand its a people game played with cards. The key to winning consistently at the game is understanding the psychological makeup of your opponent. If you can do that, the cards don't matter.  Today's blog will discuss some of the more common personalities found at the poker table.

1 Liars. You would think natural born Liars would have a distinct advantage in Poker because deception comes so naturally to them. There is extreme difficulty determining when they are lying, because they are so good at it. Having said that, they lie way more than is necessary. They check monsters, and put money in pots when they don't have cards to justify it. They have their default set to Lying. Properly played, poker requires mostly honest play, with the occasional lie. Liars, as we all know, engage in much more than the occasional lie. This makes them easily recognizable as well as very predictable. At the poker table that is a very lethal combination.

2. Nits.  They do it by the by the book. They raise when they have cards, they fold when they don't,  as a consequence - they usually get their money in good. They are disciplined and patient, as such their actions  tend to be calculated & deliberate. They are also pretty easy to spot - after just a few showdowns - you will have seen a dozen of their decisions. That is a large enough sample to stereotype someone as a Nit. Sharks will tell you, when it comes to hand reading - nits are the easiest group to predict. As people, nits lack creativity & vision. Consequently, their play is the well trodden path of play BIG cards. Many old-timers & most women fall into this group. While its the Liars who have the most deceit in their game, its the Nits who are the most genuine. 

3.  The benevolent. These are the people who repeatedly check the river in position with hands that should be bet for value. As people, the benevolent are more interested in ending hostilities, than engaging in aggressive behavior. As a regular in LV cardrooms the last 2 decades, Bagholder can attest - there are plenty of these folks out there. You can sit down at a table, strike up a friendly conversation with guy on your left. Next thing you know, he is checking the nuts on the river - because he likes your seemingly friendly nature. In life, the benevolent are among the finest human beings on the planet. Problem is, there is really no place for these people in Poker. You simply cannot make money at this game long term without the willingness to rape & pillage your opponents at every conceivable opportunity. 

4. The temperamental. In poker, just like in business - emotions cost money. Decisions in poker, if they are good ones, must have a logical foundation. Inject emotion anywhere along the line, and you are destined to fail. Poker players call it going on tilt. Even the most seasoned pros struggle with controlling "tilt". Emotional tilt comes about because human beings have a tendency to personalize more than is warranted. Some of the biggest evils in the history of planet earth have been perpetrated by powerful people who have personalized something they shouldn't. In life, they call it one of the 7 deadlies - Wrath.  Somebody puts a bad beat on you, and most folks will go out of their way to return the favor. Its human nature to start pushing in marginal situations,  becoming obsessed with evening the score. That is not a recipe for winning poker, in fact its a one way ticket to the poor house.   

5. Gamblers.  They are going to see more than their share of flops. They will push their draws harder than most. They will also call off their stack lightly. They live & play, seemingly without fear. All this makes them seem reckless & aggressive.   The psyches of most gamblers are riddled with the seven deadlies. In fact, At any given moment, anyone of those seven deadlies is probably running the show.  In the real world, this often makes them the life of the party. At the poker table, They are both a blessing and a curse. A blessing because they will put their money in bad, and a curse because because you cant push them out of pots with anything less than a stick of dynamite. When these guys are catching cards, they can book some huge wins, putting sick beats on people in the process.  While gamblers can wreak havoc on your bankroll at the poker table, in life they are usually a pleasure to be around. 

6. Psychopaths. More specifically the anti-social types. In society, psychopaths are less than 2 percent of the populace.  In poker, its probably more like 15%.   Psychopaths, by definition, lack empathy. As opponents, they are ruthless, fearless, and deceptive. Psychologists would tell you due to their callous detached disposition, they have an extraordinary talent for lying. In layman's terms, they believe their own bullshit - so they bet the same way when they have cards & when they don't.  As people, psychopaths are completely incapable of connecting with others on an emotional level. So their relationships can only be defined by exploitation and manipulation. Seemingly a perfect fit, for the poker table as all this makes them very difficult opponents to read. Their greatest asset however (their detached nature) is also their biggest weakness. Simply stated, they cannot read you. They cannot sense even primitive emotions in others like greed & fear. So they are left incapable of playing their opponents.  

7. Fish.   These folks are easy to spot as all their decisions are based on their own two cards. You will never see them 3 bet preflop with deuce-seven, nor will you see them fold QQ  preflop under any circumstances. In other words, they are playing checkers, while the sharks are playing chess.  As such they have no chance to win long term. They do not understand Holdem is a people game - they think its a card game. So they play the cards they are dealt as opposed to playing their opponents. In terms of sheer numbers, this is most populated group as anyone new to the game starts here. The downside is there are no long term winners in this group, because their understanding of the game is very rudimentary. Worse yet, most folks don't ever progress beyond this group. 

8. Math geeks. Their decisions resemble those made by fish, with one big exception. The very close decisions are governed based on the math of a given situation. For example, they will not chase flushes or straights unless the pot is laying proper odds. Most folks would not have a clue what the proper pot odds should be to chase a straight. Make no mistake, the math guys know - and their decisions are made accordingly. This fact makes them easily manipulated by those who recognize them for the math geeks they are. Savvy players can simply price them into pots when they want them in, or price them out of pots where they want them out.  You can pretty much count on one or two of these guys at every table in Las Vegas card rooms. 

9.  Narcissists are defined as egomaniacs with an over-inflated sense of self worth. They believe themselves superior to others. In life, as well as poker, this feeling of superiority prevents growth, because narcissists look outward (rather than inward) for the solution to their problems.  These are the guys cursing rotten luck when they lose, but crediting their skills when they win. They are easy to spot, as they belittle others, and often yearn for others to fail - even their own friends & family. They do it, because it reinforces their feeling of superiority. They believe external forces are to blame for their woes. Since they don't look inward, they repeat their mistakes over & over. Their power of Denial is legendary.  This makes them very profitable opponent to have in a card game, because they are among the most stubborn folks on the planet. In real life, denial prevents spiritual growth, in poker it enables savvy players to charge narcissists the max on made hands - because they just won't listen.  

10. Players. These are your long term winners. The players single greatest gift is the ability to adapt their behavior to fit the context of a situation.  When their opponents play scissors, they have an uncanny knack for showing up as a rock.  They relentlessly attack weakness. As extraordinary empaths, they are experts at spotting said weakness. They understand people better than most folks understand themselves. This insight into people makes them exceptionally skilled at hand reading. Precisely for that reason they seemingly always get their money in good. They take the best traits from all the above groups and forge them into an incredibly tough opponent, capable of almost anything. They have the patience, humility, and self-discipline required to continue growing as both a person and a poker player. 

Political Stench

  There are only a handful of places on earth that have its own, one of a kind, smell. One of those places for me, was Sportsmans park Racetrack in Cicero Illinois.  The scent in that place was an unmistakeable mix of moldy wood, stale smoke, and of course, horse manure.  It was built nearly a century ago as a Dog track. In fact, Al Capone used to fix races there by feeding grease laden hamburger to all the dogs in a race , except the one he was going to bet.  You have to admire his moxie.   Bagholder spent many a summer night playing the harness races there. Being an older facility, in a poor part of town they didn't have much for public restrooms. The few they did have, had very few stalls & they sure didn't clean them very often. If you needed one of those stalls, it was difficult to find one habitable. It usually ended up being a game of deciding which toilet stall was the least compromised. You open one stall & think, no fckn way - until you open the next one. 

  As of this writing, it seems the remaining choices for the next President are limited to Obama, Gingrich, Romney & Santorum.  The remaining field vying for the right to become our next president is very reminiscent of being at Sportsmans park & needing to take a dump.  The choices range from stalls with an overflowing sea of disease & pestilence, to just plain full of shit. Examining the final four……

Santorum.  The flavor of the month.  This guy reminds me of Thomas Carcetti, the fictional mayor of Baltimore in HBO's epic series, the Wire. Like Carcetti, he is in touch with his feminine side, leaving him about as uninspiring as a politician can be. Although, it appears, he has been blessed by the Evangelicals. Perhaps its because he is the only candidate of the four remaining who actually believes what he says, notwithstanding the fact some of his beliefs are extreme.  While the other three are just salesman with a pitch, Santorum's message is much more consistent; thus he comes off as more genuine. Having said that, I have seen much of what comes out of his mouth … in those stalls at the racetrack. 

Romney. We have said it before, but it bears repeating; there is no discernible difference between this guy & Obama, except Romney could have his hands on the wheel for eight years. This scares the daylights out of Bagholder. Sure, he would aim money at more traditionally conservative causes, but get spending under control - not a chance. Stop this nations imperialistic ways - no way. Shrink the size of Gman - not happening.  Cut taxes - guess again. While this guy speaks a like a Republican, his deeds would say otherwise. Combine his serial hypocrisy with  his neatly manicured image, and a strong argument could be made he is at best, an egomaniac - and at worst, a complete psychopath. 

Gingrich.  While he is the most dangerous of the four candidates, he also has the most upside. Of the four, he is clearly the most ethically challenged, which is telling, when you consider we are talking about four politicians. It does appear the US electorate has sized him up & then rejected him.  I find Irony in this country rejecting him for his baggage. We did elect Clinton, an obvious reprobate.  So why does Newt's personal baggage matter?  His message much scare a lot of people. At this point it time, it does not appear likely he can get the nomination.   Then again, there were some stalls I never thought I would use either...

Obama.   After 3 plus years of his command, a few things are obvious. He is no visionary.  He is no agent of change. He is the choice of the establishment. He is more interested in himself, than this country - evidenced by his multiple extensive vacations.  If re-elected, he would no longer need to keep up pretenses of caring about the direction this country is headed. Vacations would come even more frequently, and last longer. The country would be moving more from existing momentum, than from his guiding hand. It has to be viewed positively, that unlike the others, he is guaranteed gone in four years. In light of that fact, when compared to the other three stooges above - he just might be the shiniest Turd in the punchbowl. 

  While the electorate seems satisfied with playing  which stall is the least compromised, Bagholder knows there is no winning that game. We here at mytwocent$ will continue to endorse the only true agent of change, the most philosophically consistent candidate, the only candidate who would actually get us out of wars, and the only candidate who would actually cut spending. We refer to the 24 karat candidate - Ron Paul

  Nothing to fear from this 24k commode..... Vote Ron Paul

Its About Time

      Just about everything we do has an element of Time to it. We work for X dollars/Hour. We pay bills a month at a time.  We take a weeks vacation. Even money has a Time component, commonly known as interest. Gold has often been compared to money in a negative light because "Gold" pays no interest. While that fact mat be true, it fails to take into account the time component of Gold. Understanding precisely how Gold & Time interact is critical to comprehending why the dollar price of gold, over the next decade, will continue accelerating to the upside. 

  Gold has a very unique property in that it captures the value of the increased productivity of individuals over time. For example, Gold bought a lot more cotton after the cotton gin was invented, because the productivity of your average cotton farmer skyrocketed.  Increased productivity is really just a savings in Time. Less Time required to produce the same amount of goods. A stable currency (like Gold) allows the savings in Time to be captured by anyone.  Paper money is supposed to function the same way. Yet, we live in a world where our paper money buys less and less. The reason Gold is able to capture value where paper money loses it, is because the supply (thanks to mother nature) of Gold is very stable. In like fashion, an exponentially growing supply of paper currency enables the paper aristocracy to steal all the value from the productivity gains of the working class. 

  A basic tenet of economics states: price (value) is a function of supply and demand.  If you have a stable supply of something, like Gold - you effectively change one of the 3 variables in the preceding equation into a constant. As a consequence, the two variables left will move in tandem, meaning either both go up - or both go down. So, lets plug in a real life example into the above tenet. Lets say the productivity of the working class is in demand & we are trying to determine what it should be valued at in terms of Gold. Since we know the Gold supply is a constant, The two remaining variables (productivity & value) must travel in the same direction. Find a way to increase productivity and the value of Gold must go up. Thanks to technological advances and more efficiently run businesses, the increased productivity of the working class guarantees Gold will buy more in the future than it does today. 

  This property is what makes Gold the Ideal storage facility for your labor. In a way, Gold is a place to keep Time, which is all we really have. With each passing day, the time we have left on this planet diminishes. In paradoxical fashion, this has the effect of making our remaining time, more valuable. And like Time, Gold will just become more valuable the longer you live. 

**********************************************

  There is another very under rated feature of the current Gold bull market which manifests itself as a form of timing. The movements of the 21st century Gold bull, on the surface, may appear random & chaotic. But like most living things, there are discernible patterns of movement repeated over and over. Cycles, or stated another way, this Gold bull has Rhythm.  Look at a gold chart above for the last decade, and pick out the last 5 major peaks. (sep 2011, nov 2009, mar 2008, may 2006, dec 2004).  Pay particular attention to the Time between each peak. They are all 19-22 months apart. If that is not rhythm, I don't know what is. 

 Long term, the fundamentals in a given market will determine what direction a market trends. In the short term however, movements within a trending market are driven by the emotions of those involved. Long rallies ignite GREED, sharp pullbacks turn that greed into FEAR, and then sustained sideways movement turns that fear into APATHY.  Once apathy takes root, you can be sure another rally is on the way & the cycle has begun anew.  The last 8 years in the Gold market has seen this greed-fear-apathy cycle playout many times. Right now, the Gold market is in between fear & apathy. A few more months of sideways trading will increase the level of apathy to a point where a long rally is imminent. 

  Breaking down the 19-22 month cycles Time-wise within a bull market, you get about 1/3 greed, 1/3 fear, and 1/3 apathy. The irony of that split lies in the fact that, despite being a bull market, the bulls are getting what they want only 1/3 of the time, while 2/3 of the time - the bears are having it their way. Because bulls don't spend much Time getting what they want, many get demoralized, and ultimately thrown off the bull. The bears, meanwhile, are energized by a market giving them what they want, most of the Time. So the bears get sucked in to the wrong side of the market, while the weak handed bulls get thrown off. Classic bull market action.  

   Considering the last major peak was Sep 2011, the Rhythm of this beast suggests the next major peak will be in spring 2013 - a little over a year from now.  The way we see it, here at Mytwocent$ - there will be about 4-6 more months of apathy breeding. Followed by about a 6-8 month rally, taking Gold to new highs sometime next spring. Having seen this bull move Time and Time again, Bagholder can attest; higher prices are on the way.  With human nature as a constant, you can be sure - this Time - will be no different.

The Fifth Dimension

"There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. A dimension not only of sight and sound, but of mind. Next stop, the Twilight Zone

    We here at Mytwocent$ always like to acknowledge excellence. With that in mind we will dedicate today's blog to one of the most influential television shows in Bagholder's life: Rod Serling's the Twilight Zone The show routinely explored all facets of human frailty, often from multiple perspectives.  Many of the episodes had an obvious psychological bent. In like fashion, today's blog will have strong psychological overtones.

CUE: Rod Serling's voice….

  When running an empire, Its one thing to enslave the masses into a life of servitude.  Its something all together different to make them content with that life……

  Consider, if you will, Gas prices.   While most folks think its market forces which dictate those prices, we here in the Twilight Zone know better.   The powers that be (TPTB) raise prices while simultaneously  conditioning the masses into willingly accepting the higher prices.  TPTB understand its not high or low prices that affects the national mood one way , or the other. Much more important is whether prices are rising or falling. Stated another way, prices could be low, but rising; and the masses will be complaining. On the flip side, prices could be high, but falling; and people will be content. At first glance this might not make sense, as it is very counter-intuitive. Think about it this way: nobody would be happy to pay $4 Gallon for gas today. However, run the price up to $5 for a month or two & then they let it fall to $4, and just like that, the masses would be happy to pay $4 a gallon.  TPTB get what they want - $4 gallon with content customers …. while the masses get what they want - falling prices and healthier psyches (specious though it may be). 

 In true Twilight zone fashion, Its a mind game TPTB play over & over, and yet the masses never catch on. Another example is Unemployment which spent most of the last decade hovering around 5%.  This means  an unemployment rate of 7.5% throws 50% more people out of work. Nobody would be happy with that. Unless of course, TPTB run the Unemployment rate up to 10% first.  Then they let it fall back to 7.5% and everybody is happy.  Same game as the gas prices, and the same result. More people out of work, but the masses are ok with it. These are examples of applied herd  psychology with the intended purpose of making the masses more content (less trouble) in their servitude. Precisely because of that fact, Bagholder can guarantee both gas prices & unemployment will be high, but falling come election day.  TPTB do not stop at numbers games either, they run just as many games with words….

  Directly from the Hitler playbook of "the bigger the lie, the more they believe";  we have the recent settlement between Gman and the US banks who raped & pillaged the mortgage market for the last decade. Gman, with his infinite wisdom, has traded away future prosecutions for Robosigning, foreclosure fraud, or any other crimes related to the collapse of the real estate market for a paltry $25 billion. Even worse,  only 5.8 billion is payable now.  JP could pay the 5.8 by themselves with about 2 weeks of revenues. By the time the fine gets divided amongst all the banks involved, JP's share of the fine will equate to maybe 2 hours of revenue.  In essence, their punishment is a slap on the wrist. Yet,  Obama actually had the temerity to gloat about how he was sticking it to the US banks for their despicable behavior.  The masses are spun psychologically to feel better because banks are supposedly getting their "comeuppance", but those same masses are too dim-witted to realize the fine is nothing more than a "get out of jail free card" , the cost of which ($25 billion) is a microscopically  small fraction of what their misdeeds warranted.  

  As you might expect, here in the Twilight Zone,  TPTB also use word games for the purpose of multiplying their wealth. Consider this Zerohedge post which says Gold bugs are now classified by the FBI as Extremists.  This qualifies them for a government paid, middle of the night, black bagging & whisking off to Guantamo whenever Gman decides we need more up close & personal psychological conditioning.  While Gman probably won't resort to that extreme, the possible effects of the extremist label on Gold are worth considering. The new classification will be recognized by critical thinkers as Big brother  propaganda designed to keep a healthy slice of the non-critical thinking populace out of the Gold market. Those same non critical thinkers, meaning the masses, will unknowingly - in the back corners of their mind -  associate owning gold with criminal behavior. This is just another piece of MSM propaganda, no different than any of the other tired old lines like Gold is a barbarous relic, Gold is risky, Gold is a popped bubble, Gold is only owned by evil speculators, etc….  Oh well, it keeps the Gold Bull traveling light.  

  Today, there is no way to avoid the 24/7 onslaught of psychological conditioning by TPTB.  If you can think independently, their propaganda will be recognized for what it is - Lies, intended to misdirect.  If you can't think independently and you believe what you are told,  you will be condemned to a life of perpetual angst.  Psychologists call it a cognitive dissonance, In layman's terms - one of the leading causes of personal stress is when a disconnect exists between what we sense (see & hear) and reality.  For example, Obama says he is punishing the Bankers, people believe him. Yet bankers continue on, business as usual. That is a Disconnect. We are told there is no inflation, yet anyone who has been to the grocery store knows better. That is a disconnect. We are told Gold is a risky investment not worth buying near an all time high price - yet its up 11 years running. That is a disconnect. We are told ours is a better nation because we have open elections where we can choose between two parties, one that represents higher taxes & bigger government and one that represents lower taxes & less government. Yet, no matter who is in charge, government just keeps growing and taxes just keep going up. Just another disconnect - in fact - they are everywhere you look. 

  The societal disconnects that exist today as well as the resultant national angst are products of the 24/7 propaganda/conditioning by our masters.  The disconnects are too painful for the psyche to acknowledge directly, so people just live with the resultant stress.  They walk around angry, and can't figure out why. They are victims trapped in a psychological never-never land of wondering just what is true, and what isn't. Its a miserable place to live, because the only way out is a path too psychologically painful for most folks to follow. So they are condemned to a life, 

in the Twilight Zone……..