Lies.... Part 3

All great truths began as blasphemies - GBS

7. There is a pill for what ails you. In times past medical treatment was reserved for those with serious health issues. Now the medical industry has mastered the art of cashing in on imaginary health issues. They take benign everyday human frailties and reclassify them as  disease. This has the effect of conditioning unsuspecting consumers to think of themselves as victims in need of medical attention.  The medical industry is no longer in the business of diagnosing and treating. Considering there are 9 million + US kids currently on behavioral meds, It seems the medical industry is in the business of absolving countless people of their parental responsibilities, while at the same time inflicting the youth of today with built-in excuses for failure. There are no more unruly undisciplined kids, just kids who suffer from hyperactive disorder - or whatever they are calling it these days.  Its not just limited to kids either…. feeling depressed?….Can't get a boner?…..shy?…..trouble sleeping?   …. 21st century medicine has a pill for you!!!  Oh well, a people are easier to control when they are drugged.   

8.  Obama is a lock in the 2012 election.  As lies go this one also is a Jedi mind trick as we are being told what to see.  "these are not the droids you're looking for "  translates today as  "No Republican can compete with Obama". The msm has projected an Image of invincibility around Obama for months now.  We have had an entire generation raised on the aphorism "image is everything". In reality however,  Image is nothing, this is a deeds world. Checking Obama's deeds we see: instead of 2 wars we know have 3..... Guantanamo - still open for business..... His tax policy was to extend the Bush tax cuts..... Instead of 1/2 trillion deficit, we now have 1 1/2 trillion.  I  guess we could file Obama's change under "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss".  Toss in the highest unemployment since Carter and a still burning real estate market - and this guy could lose to a cardboard cutout. 

9.  Your vote counts.  It was Stalin who said "It doesn't matter who votes, only who counts the votes".  Here in America, when we vote we mark cards - which get fed into a machine. Is that really voting - Or are you playing a video game? Even if they are not rigging the vote counts, the game itself is still rigged as there is no signifigant difference between D & R. Of all the lies this one amazes me the most because of the sheer number of people taken in by it. Exceptionally bright people truly believe there are significant differences between the 2 major parties.  In reality however, They are simply different breeds of the same parasitic species. Every election cycle we are presented with a choice of D's & R's. Considering both spend like drunken sailors,  they both are in bed with the suits on wall street, and they both grow the size of Government -  not much of a choice, is there? The impetus for this lie is obvious as when people are presented with choices they feel empowered.  I guess it still works even when the choice is only an illusion. 

More Lies ..... Part two

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. -Ministry of truth


4. Tax code is about raising revenue to fund our government.  That's what they would like you to believe. As lies go, its relatively benign - its really more of a misdirection. Truth is the tax code is how our elected politicians legislate their morality. Tax laws are designed  with the intent of influencing behavior of taxpayers  (evaders too) in one direction or another.  Put a tax on X and people won't do X. Give a tax exemption for Y and the people will do Y. Its really that simple. It seems odd the tax code would be written without regard to revenue - yet it is.  If Gman wanted to raise revenue - they would do what every other government before them who has controlled a FIAT currency has done - print more. The tax code is the modern day equivalent of the slave masters whip. Just like the other two lies on today's blog, this one is all about control of the masses. 


5. Climate change is caused by man.  In my 4 plus decades on this planet, every time man does battle with nature - he gets his ass kicked.  The idea, man could actually alter his behavior in some way to move nature in a direction man wants it to go is patently absurd. It is the zenith of arrogance to think thats even possible.  Yet, there exists a small faction of the scientific community screaming the sky is falling while demanding money to study the possibility - (No conflict there of course). Anyone with a semi- advanced understanding of math (space & volume) has all the tools needed to comprehend the statistically insignificant contribution man has made to global warming. Its not even a rounding error - thats how small it is. The lie of manmade climate change is more about getting Government into every facet of our lives.  It is a repeatable pattern used over & over by our leaders. Take a problem (real or imagined matters not), create enough hysteria over said problem such that government response is demanded. There is nothing on this planet you could add government to, and make  better. Climate change is no exception as Gman will just become more intrusive into our lives - and nature will do what it wants anyway. 


6.  Religious faith is good for the soul.  Any natural born con artist will tell you, the easiest marks are those who take things on faith.  Faith, by definition,  requires an abandonment of reason - you know reason - the only thing that separates us from the animals. Faith is believing without evidence. Faith is a shortcut to knowledge, like cheating. Faith is bad enough, combine it with religion and you are destined for a life of futile emptiness. Organized religion is perhaps the cruelest lie ever perpetrated on mankind as more people have died because of or in the name of religion than anything else. As an institution,  organized religion bears a striking resemblance to another institution we abolished 150 years ago - Slavery. They both require unquestioning obedience, they   coerce loyalty with threats of severe punishment, they place your needs secondary to others, and most importantly they  rob people of their humanity.  Growth as a human being requires an inward looking examination of the soul - which is not always a pretty place. Organized religion relieves people of this difficult burden by telling them to look outward. So followers go thru life without the possibility of growth -  like slaves. All religions do it, they all say you need to give up who you are as an individual to become a cog in a greater machine. All religions value institution over individual.  Think of yourself, or for yourself - well that is heresy.  Religious faith is an easy sell on this planet because its not an idea which the mind possesses, but rather its an idea which possesses the mind.  

I always tell the truth, even when I lie.... Part one

History is a set of Lies, agreed upon.  -Napolean

This is the first of a 3 part blog on ten of the biggest Lies forced upon US citizens.

1. We are in Afghanistan hunting terrorists.

     This lie falls under the category of Jedi mind trick - as the MSM is telling us what they want us to see. We are hunting terrorists, they say. There is little or no investigative reporting of this war, and that begs the question why. Here is a fact  to consider: 92% of the worlds opium is produced in Afghanistan.  In $$$ terms the opium market  is already twice the size of the US Gasoline market - and thats without a monopoly in place. . Could you imagine a 92% monopoly on something twice the size of the US gas market? In legal circles, it would be called a motive. Erudite historians will call it the Casus  belli.   Make no mistake,   we are there to gain control (whether direct or indirect matters not) over the Opium market.  This would not be very popular on main street, hence the ruse of hunting terrorists.   

2. We live in a free country.

       As lies go, this one is as brazen as it gets.  Most people  believe it not because they have to or are told to, but because they want to.  Its also an excellent example of a lie told often enough - no matter how big, will be  believed. They pound it into your head when you are most vulnerable - growing up as a child. From day one, you are told what sets this country apart from others is we are FREE people.  Then the realities of adulthood hit, as you cannot drive a car without a license or registration from gman. You cannot  get a job, open a bank account, buy a home,  or start a business without gmans permission. Hunting, fishing, or visiting a national park requires greasing gman first. Want to get married, vacation across borders, walk your dog, or buy a gun  - you will need gmans ok.   You can' t make money , sell investments, earn a living, or even  buy groceries without gman demanding a percentage.   In this free country , I can't even burn a log in my own fireplace without gmans permission. If you will excuse the double entendre, there is nothing free about this country. 

3. The 1930's was a depression, today is just a recession.  The best way of measuring the breadth of a depression is not to look at the prevailing wages for which the working class can trade their labor, but rather what those wages could buy. To fully comprehend the sheer magnitude of this lie an apples to apples comparison of what those wages could buy is required. We will use Gmans own numbers courtesy US Bureau of statistics…...

      In 1930 The average yearly wage was $1970 - the equivalent of 98.5 ounces of gold - or 1100 barrels of oil - or enough to buy 3 cars (avg cost $640), or 1/2 a home (median price $3860). In 2011 Median wage is $41,300 - about 28 ounces gold - or 413 barrels oil - enough to buy less than 2 cars, or only 1/5 a home (221k median price).

  Still not convinced? consider the working poor in 1930 when the minimum wage was 43 cents/hour - or about 4.3 silver dimes - or 4.3 gallons gas - enough to buy 5 lbs flour & sugar and 1 lb hamburger.   Todays minmum wage is $7.50/hr - or about 2.5 silver dimes an hour, or about 2.2 gallons gas, or enough to buy 5 pounds flour & sugar - but no hamburger.

 I look at these numbers and see the 1930's as heavenly days compared to today. The reason you have been taught the 1930's were a depression is because it was a depression for the upper class - Not the working class. Because it is the rich who get to write the history books we are told we must never return to a time like the 1930's (when the working class prospered at the expense of the rich). Today we have the opposite system in place - the rich prosper at the expense of the working class. I like the 1930's system better.

Give me a $20 five and all the hardways...

 - Not all of us are gamblers, those who aren't don't matter - Bukowski
 
     I still remember the moment - like it was yesterday - the gambling gods first stuck the needle in my arm. I was 12 years old and convinced there was no way the Steelers could beat the Dallas cowboys in the 1979 super bowl. The 3 1/2 points Dallas was catching was just a bonus. As fate would have it, the Boys lost by 4 (with special thanks to Jackie "no hands" Smith). That 1/2 point cost me my lunch money for a whole week.  That was my first lesson in "No such thing as a sure thing". That summer I began working as a caddy at the local country club where I worked 3 summers. What an eye-opener. Show up at the crack of dawn along with 60 other teenage boys and wait for your name to get called. If you were lucky enough after hours of wait - you might get to "loop" someones 30 pound bag up and down hills for 5 hours for an $8 wage plus tip. The  caddymaster  (nicknamed "bags" because he carried money in little grey cloth bags) knew who tipped & who didn't. The caddies who wouldn't roll over got the non tippers, while the savvy caddies (who greased bags) got the good loops. 

 The primary way of passing time waiting for loops was to play games - for money of course. Poker - Pool - Pinball - Gin - Pingpong - Craps - Darts - Backgammon - Cribbage - Rummy - Paper/scissors/rock - Chess - Blackjack - there were always games going. Preppy kids of the wealthy club members used to come by with their holier-than-though attitudes and their designer clothes and lose more money in a day than I could earn caddying in a month.  I knew I had an edge in several of those games and I abused it.    Saturdays were my favorite because  there was usually a crap game going. I used to book "field" bets with a promise to pay double on all the "yo" elevens. Nobody else would, so I got all the action. That was my first real income stream.  Another time, I had an actual club member show up demanding to play backgammon with me because I beat his kid out of $80 over the prior couple of weeks. The old man was worse than the kid, and I went home with a roll of cash big enough to choke a horse.  I was shaken down by bags for $20 to look the other way as "gambling" was not allowed. After that though, When my name was called I got good loops. People would tip $25-$50 sometimes even a $100 - bags got his 20%. Win-win for everybody - another lesson learned. 

   The real lesson though from those caddyshack days was having an edge & working that edge.  I learned young to get on the right side of the math. As an adult today, as much as I love gambling - I know it has a negative expectation value (-EV for short). On this planet, the more -EV behavior you engage in, the more you lose. Period. If you want to make money (and as odd as it may seem, this is not the goal of most gamblers)  the only way to do it is to have that percent or two of math on your side (+EV),  this is what casino do.   Gamblers willingly engage in -EV  behaviors, casinos provide the setting and take the other side of the trade, the +EV side. Winners will tell you understanding exactly where the line is between -EV and +EV is critical to winning. To win consistently, it is not enough just to know where that line is, you must have the self discipline to respect it. This is where winners part ways with gamblers as most gamblers have personalities so riddled by the 7 deadlies, self-discipline is just a myth. 

   For those who know where the line is, its pride that blinds them into believing they can play on the wrong side of that line & win. It is also pride that prevents people from admitting mistakes which is why when gamblers lose - they just want to gamble more. Funny how that pride thing works - It gets you to cross the line, then when you lose - it sends you right back for more. Viciously reinforcing circle if there ever was one, but then again pride is a deadly sin.


  Most folks who play the lottery will tell you they know its a bad bet. They do it anyway because the lure of the "big one" is just too blinding - thats greed. Many will openly admit  the dream is what they are buying as they hand those dollars over for lottery tickets. Its greed making that decision, pure and simple. Lets not forget sloth - or laziness as some would say. It was really sloth which got me hooked as a youth at the caddyshack. Why haul heavy bags around for 5 hours for a paltry wage  when I could sit in an air-conditioned room in a comfortable chair with a cold drink and take someones money playing cards? The morality of what I was doing in those days never occurred to me. All I could see was the money and the fact I didn't have to work for it. Greed often works together with sloth.  To wit: Easy money makes for a strong lure (greed), not having to work for it (sloth) - well thats the hook. How appropriate, as most gamblers are considered fish. 

  While lust usually has a sexual connotation, in the gambling world it manifests itself differently.  Dante would say Lust is really about a deep desire to be accepted or admired by others.   Lust is why many casinos make spectacles of jackpot winners with bells & sirens attracting attention. People observe the spectacle, they want to become the spectacle, and again rational thought goes out the window. Almost anyone who regularly plays slot machines has at one time or another "felt"  a jackpot was imminent.  "I feel it coming" they say - In reality though its not a feeling, its lust at work. 


  The last two sins Wrath & Gluttony are reserved for the truly degenerate gamblers out there. Wrath is a single minded fixation often rooted in a denial of what is. While gluttony is most often associated with food, its really more a sin of excess. In the immortal words of Harry Callahan  "a man has got to know his limitations". Gluttons know no limits. Degenerate gamblers lives are consumed (wrath) by gambling to excess (gluttony) .  These are the folks who end up at GA meetings with sob stories of how they lost it all.

  

  While this blog might sound like I am ragging on gamblers - there are some positives. Precisely because gamblers routinely cross that line & live life on the dark side, they make for some of the most interesting personalities I have ever met. Financially speaking, the most successful people I know ALL have more than their share of gamble in them. As vices go, Gambling - if harnessed properly - is both harmless and therapeutic. Last but not least, I would count myself as someone with more than his share of Gamble. As proof I would offer this: There aren't many things on this planet better than pussy, but gambling at a hot craps table is one. 

  

Leviathan - not quite Hobbes version - but close....

   I am forever being asked where silver is headed. People think because I have traded in the silver market for the last 25 years – I am supposed to have some special insight. The truth is I do not know where silver will be 6 months from now. It could be $21 or $61 – neither would surprise me. I am however, very comfortable in stating that silver will be adding zeroes to its price over the next decade. Those of you who know me personally will recall I said this 10 years ago too – when silver was under $4. I was right then, and I am right now. I defy anybody out there to show me any investment on the planet with more bullish fundamentals and less risk than silver – Right, there isn't one.

  The only real insight I can give you with regard to silver is this. There is no market on the planet that moves like Silver. It is a vicious beast – a Leviathan - if you will. In the last 6 years alone it has 4 different up moves ranging from 70%-120% each. In fairness, it also has had 4 corrections ranging from 30-60% off. In typical bull market fashion, the rally's took 4-8 months each – while the corrections were all measured in weeks.

   Another signature feature of bull markets is they travel light. The bull is forever trying to shake the longs out of their positions, while trapping the bears. With that in mind lets consider this recent correction in Silver in its proper context. There were many (new) people in this market getting long back in April when silver was in the forties. Those people are having their convictions tested now. While many are equating the steepness of the pullback in early May with the popping of the silver "bubble", the truth is it has been a very gentle correction in this Bull market. This correction has taken only 1/3 off the price; that is small potato's compared to the past. If this is a real correction, then silver is headed back to $21 to test last years breakout. A sojourn down there would shakeout all late arrivals as well as all but the staunchest Bulls. It is for this reason, $21 silver (coincidentally its about 60% off from the $50 peak) in 6 months will not surprise me.

   On the other hand, silver is very under owned. It is also a microscopically small market – this is why the moves are so vicious. There is also about a 300 million oz per year deficit between what we produce as a planet and what we consume. While we live in a country with a propensity for papering over deficits, fact is this deficit can only be resolved with much, much higher prices. When silver does move up, it moves up BIG. If the next leg is up, then 70 % from here puts us in the mid $60s – while 120% from here lands us in the mid $80s. Both are realistic targets for a year from now.

   The $64,000 question for traders is which way is the next move? While I have nothing concrete to go on, my gut tells me the next move is down. By the time its in the low $20's a few months from now the media will have the sheople convinced the bubble has popped. Those who are foolish enough to think this is 1980 all over again will be gripped by the fear of silver heading much lower than $21 – like it did in 1980 after it hit $50. They will abandon ship in droves, on cue, right at the bottom – then the bull will resume its march higher – much lighter too. I, for one, would love to get another crack at it in the low $20's. In conclusion, if you are long, stay long. Pray for a quick trip to the low $20's over the summer and load the wagon if we are lucky enough to get it. The smart ones, like me, will be scaling in deeper all the way down.  : )

  Thats my twocents on silver, will be on vacation for the next ten days....I promise a nice piece on the psychology of gamblers when I get back.....

I Can't be the only person sickened by this

I apologise in advance for the Numbers I am about to hit you with, but it is necessary to fully appreciate the scale of disaster that is public education.

Facts:

1. Local, State, & Fed spending on public education was just shy of 900 billion in 2010.
2. There are approx 60 million kids aged 5-18 in the US
3. There are just under 3 million teachers in the US
4. If the average teacher makes 50k then total payroll for all teachers is approx 150 billion
5. We are spending $15,000 per student – or about $300k per classroom
6. You could buy every school age child a new Imac and high speed internet for a year for    less than  a 100 billion.

Conclusions:

1. Only a government entity could spend $750 billion to administer $150 billion in payroll.
2. Stated another way, of every $6 we spend - $5 is for administrative expense while $1 is for the teacher.
3. How is this possible without widespread graft and corruption? Hint: its not.
4. If Private enterprise & market forces were allowed in this market THIS could never happen.
5. The next moron who thinks we need more $$ for education should be publicly whipped for Idiocy
6. The next moron who says there is no place to cut $$ from the education budget is lying to you.
7. Unions are to blame for some this, politicians the rest.
8. Teaching via the internet is clearly the fiscally responsible way of the future, but the slew of people sucking on that $750 billion dollar teat will do anything they can to prevent change.
9. Actual education in this country will continue to get worse because the money spent by taxpayers is not spent on education, but rather on enriching administrators.

Dr. Jack - truly a man ahead of his time .....

 The passing of Dr. Jack Kevorkian is sure to fill more than a few seconds of the nightly news. While many knew him as Dr.Death - his MSM pseudonym - nothing could be further from the truth. Many would have you believe he was a crusader for physician assisted suicides. While there is some truth to that, his life and what he stould for are far more important than euthanasia. He was on the front lines of a much bigger war; namely personal freedom vs government control. The real issue at stake is whether we as individuals have the right to do what we want with our lives - or do those choices belong to gman? Sad Truth is with gman making the decisions, we are NOT free people.

  Dr. Jack really was not given a fair shake. Gman (arbitrarily) decided the people of this country were not capable of making life choices - so they opted to step in and make those choices for them. I could understand the prosecutions if there were existing laws on the books that he violated - but there were none. That is why it took multiple trials to stop him. Gman was trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Gman, being the bloated oversized beached whale it is, eventually forced that peg. It mattered little that Dr. Jack was right or that his so called victims weren't victims as they all died by their own hand. What did matter was the obtuse vanity of the people who run this country. Gman simply could not have an individual thumbing their nose at them - that was his real crime. To me he is no different than the Tienamen square Soldier standing in front of the tanks - same reason - different circumstance - and most importantly different result.

  While most in the MSM will lament his passing as a loss for those who believe in assisted suicides, he was really much more a living-breathing statement on the limits of government. It is a sad day for those (like me) who champion individual rights. Those on the other side of that coin, who want more obtrusive government - will paint him in a negative light with slanderous names like "Dr. Death", because thats all they have. With them, It's always about the messenger, never about the message. This is evidenced by the rules of his parole where in this free country he was not allowed to speak publically about the assisted suicide issue after his release. What a farce. His message was one of freedom, personal choice, and limiting the reach of Gman. For that, he should be remembered as a crusader. Godspeed Jack.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY BABY!!! Has it been 10 years already?

Ten years ago this week the Gold price was bobbing along generational lows, until finally the first week of June 2001, the Great 21st century Gold Bull was born. Back then, it was trying (for the umpteenth time) to break $265 on the upside. That $265 level was the first hurdle it cleared - and its never looked back. To those of us in the market at the time, the $265 level seemed insurmountable. Little did we know what a rambunctious bull he would become. Ten years in now, he has ten straight years of gains to show  - and still people do not believe. We are truly a nation of cynics.

This isn't your normal bull market either - it is a Behemoth. This is evidenced by the fact this Bull hasn't even learned to buck yet. We are a decade in without a single 1/3 off sale; like this bulls 6 year old cousin Silver is offering right now. More proof of what a behemoth this bull is comes by looking at who is buying at these levels & who is selling.  In one corner, on the buy side we have central banks (some of the most powerful suits on the planet). In the other corner, on the sell side we have the general public (how else can you explain "sell your gold here" shops on every corner).  So basically you have the suits on one side and the masses on the other side of the trade. This can only end one way, because if there is one ironclad no fail way to make money in the investing arena it is this: bet opposite the masses. The smart money suits are doing it, are you?


Bull markets travel thru 3 phases. Accumulation - Runup - Distribution. This Bull is 10 years old and yet strong hands are still accumulating at these levels. Make no mistake, the strong hands buying today are not paying $1500 for gold to sell down the road at $2000 or $2500. The Strong hands play for Zeroes. Ten baggers, twenty baggers, or thirty baggers are more the norm for generational Bulls. When this bull finally gives up the ghost, 10-15 years from now - there will be "buy your gold here" shops on every corner. While this may seem crazy now, its not. Its distribution, and its how bull markets end.


  Enough of that, today is a Birthday celebration. My gift to you is this insight. As bull markets mature the price rises at an accelerated rate. The last 10 years have brought us 18% a year compounded - the next ten will dwarf that. Buy an ounce- take the ride!!