Unscripted Excellence

 Yesterday was one of those days for Golf fans, that just don't come along very often. The two best golfers  (Mickelson & Tiger) of the last 20 years paired together on the last day at one of golfs most cherished venues.  The tournament was on the line Sunday at Pebble Beach,  a course they have both "owned" earlier in their careers.  What an unexpected treat. It was a matchup for the ages.  The 30 foot putt Mickey made after Tiger's chip-in, is proof enough, this universe has balance. 

   Congratulations are due Phil Mickelson, who won going away. It is the best I have seen him play in quite a while, giving credence to the argument he may yet have a Major or two left in him.  As people go, Mickelson just oozes class.  Always has. The first decade of his career he was known as the best player never to win a major. It was branded on him, like a scarlet letter. He took it like a man. When he finally got that monkey off his back  at the 2004 Masters with an array of Birdies & Eagles in the final round, well,  it brought tears to Bagholder's eyes. Yesterday, he again had the whole package on display. He was striping drives, his irons were precise, and he was making 30-footers like they were tap-ins. He, unlike his opponent, was master of his domain - nuance intended.  We here at Mytwocent$ could not be happier for Mickelson. 

  As for his opponent, Tiger, many would claim he is broken man. Tiger is an  exposed fraud, with the removed veneer leaving him a mental cripple, or so the argument goes.  Consequently, most believe his days of dominating the PGA tour are over. I disagree. As an investor in greatness, I am going long Tiger Woods right here. He simply has too much talent & he is the best clutch putter I have ever seen.  Anyone who understands what it takes to play Golf at the highest level would tell you, the game is a mental one.  Yet, Tiger was able dominate the tour while living a duplicitous life.  Juggling multiple women is hardly a recipe for a clear head. In fact, it would have to be a living hell. His career golf accomplishments are staggering, when you consider he did it while his inner demons were running the show.

  I suspect, Tiger has spent the last couple years with some of the best shrinks money can buy. Hopefully, his spiritual healing has taken root and he is no longer on the road to Dante's 8th level of hell where a gilded lead suit awaits him. High priced psychiatry makes it likely he will be teeing it up in the future with a lot fewer personal issues. When you combine the best natural talent WITH a healthy psyche, there is no limit to what can be accomplished. With that in mind,  Bagholder is now on record as stating he  believes Tiger has a minimum of 6 more Majors in his career & will again dominate the tour.  

 Of course, I have been wrong before…In that vein, congratulations are also due the New York football Giants.  They were the better team last Sunday, Sorry Patriot fans…..

Rocky Mountain High!!

   Winners. They are easy to spot.  They just do things differently than the rest. They make the extraordinary look routine, while others struggle to make the ordinary look routine. Winners live in the present, always thinking in terms of "I am or I will". Others are often consumed by their vision of the future - or in some cases, live in the past - but rarely in the now, like winners do. "I could & I did" is the mantra of also-rans. The fact winners live in the moment is what allows them to produce when the stakes are the highest.

   In sports (just like in life), you would think the winners would be the most naturally gifted.  Those who can run the fastest, think the quickest, or throw the hardest should produce more than their quota of winners. Yet for some reason, when you look at winners as a group - the most physically gifted rarely make the cut. Wilt Chamberlain is a perfect example. Many would consider him the most physically gifted player to ever lace  up sneakers. Yet, few would describe him as a winner.   While he had all the physical tools, he was lacking more important qualities -  like heart, dedication, and a killer instinct. Those traits as well as an uncanny sense of timing is what produces winners. 

This past Sundays  Bronco/Steeler playoff tilt - Tim Tebow,  with his usual flare for the dramatic rallied his team in overtime to win another big game.  As a 40 year follower of NFL Football, and a lifetime Bears fan, believe me, I have seen plenty of bad  quarterback talent. I can safely say as far as Tebow in concerned - I have never seen a worse throwing motion on any quarterback ever.  Not only does he have the slowest release I have ever seen - he throws closer to sidearm than overhand. There has never been a quarterback who gets more done with less talent than Tebow. When you combine the fact he has a very hard nosed style of play and a complete lack of talent - its tough to believe he will thrive in the league long term.  Having said that, I cannot believe what I have seen from him this year already. He has engineered multiple late-game winning drives. Its one thing to see experienced Quarterbacks do that, its something altogether different to watch a Rookie do it. Peyton manning won only 3 games all season as a rookie. Rookie quarterbacks, no matter how talented, simply do not win in the NFL. The fact he is winning is what makes Tebow so fascinating to watch. He is doing it, as a rookie, in  an unconventional way, with little talent, on the biggest stage (NFL Playoffs) in a clutch manner. Stated another way - he produces when it counts the most. In Bagholders book, that makes Tebow a winner.

   It will be some compelling drama this weekend when Tebow takes his show on the road against the Brady bunch. Bagholder believes Tebows magical season will come to an end. Brady, a winner in his own right, is also the stuff of greatness. Greatness is an entirely different beast - we will save that for another blog.  In the mean time, Patriots on the money line - like Tebow -  is a winner!!

One of the Greats....

      History was made today as Major league Baseball has a new all time Saves leader.  The title now belongs to Mariano Rivera. As a closer, The guy has been absolutely lights out for a decade and a half.  602 saves is an amazing record, even more so when you consider Mariano has only 38 career blown saves. Thats 94% success rate. He is a surefire first ballot hall of famer. 

   Bagholder has never been much of a Yankee fan. In fact, in my Bookie days - I had several clients who religiously pounded the Yankees. I can't begin to describe the psychological pain of having money against the Yankees, then watching Mariano take the hill with a Yankee lead late in the game. It meant the game was over, before it was over - and everybody involved knew it.  The outs were just a formality.   

    One of the things that separates the good from the great is how they perform when it matters the most. In Playoffs, Mariano has 49 wins & saves against only One loss. Look it up. Bagholder has been a lifelong Cubs/Dbacks fan, which means we don't get post season games where I come from very often.  In my lifetime, the Cubs have not been to a world series while the Diamondbacks have only been to one. As fate would have it, the one was in 2001 against Mariano & the Yankees. 

    Bagholder was blessed to have attended Game 7.  A couple of greats in their own right started that day, Curt Schilling went for the Dbacks, Roger Clemens started for the Yankees. Pitchers duel the whole way until Alfonso Soriano hit a Home run giving the Yankees the lead late in the Game. The silence in the stadium after that home run, was the eeriest moment of my life. 50,000 Dback fans were gutted with one swing. Morale was non-existent as we  all knew Rivera was going to pitch the ninth.  

 In one of lifes little ironies, Bagholder had no financial interest in the game that day. I was however, emotionally invested, as a Dback fan. The pain of watching him take the mound in the ninth was worse than the pain of the Countless times I was on the wrong side of his saves as a bookie. When you are a fan, and your team loses a big one - it takes a little piece of your soul, leaving behind this small empty place, filled with what could have been.  Losing money pales in comparison.

   At that point in his career Mariano had NEVER lost a post season game. In storybook fashion, that Dback team came back in the bottom of the ninth to beat Mariano & the Yankees. It is the only post-season loss of his stellar career and Bagholder is one of only 50,000 people who saw it live.   Hard to believe its been ten years already.  

   Mariano looks the same today as the day he came in the league. Virtually un-hittable. Absolute money, when it counts. Our hats are off To Mariano, to give credit where credit is due. He is the best the game has ever seen. It would be a pleasure to see him deal for many more years. 

I, for one, won't bet against him. 

Vice Management

For a loser, Vegas is the meanest town on earth.  ~Hunter S. Thompson

As someone with more than his share of gamble, bagholder will be ushering in the new NFL season next weekend from the posh confines of Caesars Palace, Las Vegas. Seems only right to kickoff the new season in a Roman environment as NFL Football is the closest thing we have to Roman Gladiators.  While the NFL doesn't offer the blood, guts, and gore of ancient Rome, there is just enough violence to quench the more animalistic thirsts of the average American Male. 

Las Vegas holds a special place, deep in Bagholder's heart. Back in the day, Greyhound bus tickets were $12, rooms at Binions were $15, two room service omelets & pot of coffee with tip - $20.  We used to sit in the sportsbook on a gambling budget of less than $100 and bet football & horses all weekend, with a roll of quarters handy (for tipping the waitress bringing free beers) . Oh yeah, and ten cent craps. Ahhh the good old days. As an experienced veteran of weekend benders in Vegas here are some helpful hints for you rookies….

1. Set a gambling budget and stick to it. As childish as it sounds, it guarantees there will be more weekend benders in the future. 

2. Be caught up on sleep before heading to Vegas. If you are short of sleep and then head to Vegas, your chances of managing your roll wisely are low; add alcohol and/or drugs into the equation, and those chances are  nonexistent. 

3. Stay hydrated. Water is your friend. The dry air, the desert heat, the casino oxygen & the Alcohol all conspire to deprive your immune system of its most vital lubricant.

4. Leave the kids home. It is not a family town. Las Vegas is 24/7 debauchery on display for all to see, including your kids.  

5.  Any given weekend, there are a dozen good shows worth seeing. LV isn't all about the gambling, they do have top shelf entertainment

6.  Don't upset the locals. This cannot be underestimated. While you are there to "cry havoc" they Live there. Be respectful. 

7. While they tell you drinks are free at the tables, it takes time to get them there.  During that time, your roll is exposed - so really - they are not free. Believe me, Bagholder has ordered more than his share of four figure Heinekens. The reason alcohol is free is because it impairs judgement, the one thing you need to keep your money. 

8. 99.6% of the hot looking women who look you in the eye & smile, are WORKING. Bagholder believes you have a god-given right to skewer $1000/hr working girls, if that is your thing.  Be warned though, with this subtle nuance: While you are eyeing their valuables, they too are eyeing your valuables.

9. Eat well. Breakfast - omelet house (corner rancho & charleston) - the spartacus rocks.  Lunch - for the last 25 years it was the Stage Deli at ceasars, now that its closed - the American Grille at the Rio will do fine - the oysters rockefeller  wow. Dinner - Hugo's Cellar at the 4 queens, everything on the menu is good - has an old Vegas feel - for the nostalgics out there. 

10. Expect to lose. All gaming in Vegas - except poker - has a negative expectation value  (-EV for short).   This means, the more gambling you do - the greater your chances of losing.

So one of the keys to occasionally beating Vegas is to eat like a king, enjoy the shows, party like a rock star, smoke good cigars, ogle women, and NO long sessions at the tables/machines. But  rather, take your whole gambling budget and make 1 big bet. Something roughly 50-50 like the NFL, gives you 3 hours of rock solid entertainment for your bet & about half the time, you will go home a winner - if thats the only gambling you do. As any veteran of Las Vegas will tell you, going home a winner about half the time puts you miles ahead of most people. 

The Worm gets his due

"I'm not one of those leeching sons of bitches. I want to earn everything I get."  Dennis Rodman  This weekend the NBA is inducting the "Worm" - aka Dennis Rodman into the NBA Hall of Fame. As a 30 year fan of NBA Basketball, we here at mytwocent$ would say Rodman is the best rebounder to have played the game in the last 3 decades. In fact, there really isn't another name in the conversation for best rebounder - thats how far he is ahead of the competition.     Rodman was very undersized relative to most NBA rebounding greats. The reason he succeeded in the land of the giants was because he had the heart of a champion, a nonstop motor, a very high basketball IQ, and a desire to do the dirty work.  Not only was he a world class rebounder, but he was a versatile defender who routinely shut down some of the games best frontcourt players. We also believe putting him on the court with MJ & Pippen, is the best three headed defensive monster the NBA has ever seen.  Rodman gave 110% effort every time he was on the court, while his off the court persona, left a little to be desired. The tattoos, piercings, and tantrums were about as rebellious as could be back then. Of course he never did anything half-way - that is part of what made him successful in the NBA. We are of the opinion, his efforts on the court were more than enough to punch his ticket into the hall. As for his escapades off the court, well lets just say - He is living proof, image isn't everything.

"For five years I've felt like the best prostitute in a high-class whorehouse. But all the other girls get paid more than I do."  Dennis Rodman

What is your kingdom worth?

So you own a business - thousands of employees - highly profitable - Customers can't get enough of your product.  Then  one day Tony Soprano & his crew walk in, look around, tell you how much they like the place. They inform you they are in the business of making sure business's stay open - wink wink. 







Tony smiles and says:

 "hey, we have the same accountant - I noticed you made a lot of money  last year after expenses - and because we know you want to stay open - we think you should give us 75% of it as a - you know - insurance against a complete work stoppage - if you know what I mean". 

You think about your alternatives, and reason its best to just pay Tony - and maybe he will go away.  

After six straight years of handing Tony 3 out of every 4 dollars you make - you muscle up and tell Tony its time to renegotiate. Tony says: 

"Yeah, I was thinking the same thing - Us taking 3 out of 4 dollars you make - just doesn't work for us anymore - now we want 5 out of 6". 

 As the owner of that business, if your only choices are pay him - or close up shop - what do you do?

While you ponder the answer to that, here are some facts about the current NFL labor dispute: 

1. The NFL is just under a $10 billion dollar a year business

2. 4 billion comes from TV rights, 6 billion from Gate & Merch

3. The expiring contract had revenues split 55/45 owners/players

4. The owners still have to pay coaches, stadiums, merch cost, refs, equipment, Insurance, taxes, and the day to day expenses out of their 55% - while players pay none of it. 

5.   The owners claim those things cost 4 billion of their 5.5b share, leaving them about 1.5b. 

6.  So, players take home $4.5b, the owners get $1.5b, stated another way 3 out 4 for the players - the way it stands today.  

7. The players are looking to get their end raised to 50% 0r $5 billion, leaving the owners to get $1 billion.

8. In other words, the players are not content  with 3 out every 4 dollars in after expense revenues, they want 5 out of 6 instead. Just like Tony Fuckin Soprano.

  As you can now see, there is NO significant difference between the Soprano business shakedown & the NFL labor dispute. The numbers are the same.  Admittedly, its difficult to feel sorry for Billionaire NFL owners - but it is their kingdom at stake.  

  With the players getting 3/4 now, it seems the players are already over paid.  This is why the owners are willing "to go to the mattresses". Their pockets are deeper, my guess is their resolve is deeper also. They will tell Tony, I mean the players to go fuck themselves, The owners will get what they want - a larger overall share. 

To put a number on the current gap, the two sides are about a billion apart. If they each give about half - you are only talking about 5% of revenues . Seems silly, either side would flush a whole season over 5% of revenues.  

  We here at mytwocent$ are of the opinion cooler heads will prevail. A deal will get done without any loss of regular season games. There is simply too much $$ at stake. When the deal is struck, both sides will claim  victory by pointing to different parts of the deal. For example, they could up the players share to 4/5 - if the owners get revenue deductions for stadium costs. Both sides could claim victory.  In fact, they should throw the fans a bone too - can you say 18 game season?  

Are you ready for some Football - Or what?