Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Play, or get played



 The life of Wimpy from the popeye cartoons just wasn't for me.  He was part of the reason I have always been a saver. Saving used to be easy when I entered the workforce 30 years ago.  My local bank in 1981 offered 30 year  bonds (to build a toll road) worth a  million dollars at maturity (about now) for 15 grand.  Now that was a tradel!!!  Even more amazing, is nobody wanted them. Conventional wisdom at the time was inflation will eat up the value of your savings and/or Gman will welch on the bond payoff.

  My parents,  relatives, teachers all thought that way. The compelling math (15 grand to a million), as presented by yours truly, didn't matter to them. What did matter, was a decades (1970's) worth of watching prices rise quickly  & the US dollar purchasing power fall dramatically.   As It turned out, locking up money long term at those double digit interest rates in the early eighties was arguably the single best trade to have made in any asset class  that whole decade. It should come as no surprise to anyone who understands the "great game", why that trade was universally despised at the time. 

   Most regular folk in the investing arena spend their time trying to spot the next trend into which the herd will stampede. If we are lucky to spot it early, have the nuts to get in, and the conviction to hold tight - the masses will pay us off when they decide to pile in - thats the goal anyway. For a select few however, its not about spotting the trend - but rather creating the trend.   Thats the gist of the "great game" as played by the uber-wealthy (Warburgs & Rockefeller's, etc).  Because this is their world, and we are just living in it - they actually create the circumstances that leads to the conventional wisdom which conditions the masses to lean the wrong way.  

  The great game is played best if 99%+ people are on one side of a trade, while a select few are on the other side. Wealth is easy to multiply under those conditions. So the question for the financial elite is how to get 99%+ on the wrong side of a trade. Well, even a fool doesn't need to touch a hot stove more than 3 or 4 times to know its going to burn. So the banksters throw 10 years of sharply rising commodity prices at the masses in the 1970's.

  The result was to condition the masses to believe they were best off storing their wealth in commodities (like Gold & silver). So, the whipped public scraped together what cash they could and threw much of it at the metals in the early eighties. The banking elite was happily taking that cash for metals & locking up all the bonds they could at those double digit interest rates. As usual, the banksters had it right & the masses were destroyed. 

Fast forward to today, a 30 year treasury worth a million dollars at maturity (in 2041)at prevailing rates would now cost north of 450k!!  As odd as it may seem, now everybody wants them. For the last 30 years people have been conditioned to believe there is nothing safer than US treasuries.   Today, pension funds, foreign countries, hedge fund managers, retired folks, you name it - they are ALL on the long side of the bond trade.

  Once again, the financial elite have everybody leaning one way. Todays bond markets (everyone is long) and precious metal markets (everyone is sold out) are so lopsided - multiplying your wealth the next 10 years is childs play.  If you understand the "great game", you know the conventional wisdom was created by the financial elite - for the purpose of getting everyone on the wrong side of the trade.The hardest part for normal folk is dismissing that conventional wisdom of "Bonds are safe" and "Gold is risky". We here at Mytwocent$ admire the diabolical genius of it all, really.
   
The banking elite know that if they hit the masses with a decade of sharply rising prices - like they did in the 1970's - the bonds everyone is paying 450k for today will plummet. Will they go all they way back down to 15K? Its certainly possible, even likely. Today's conventional wisdom of "safe" US treasuries will gradually give way to the same fears that gripped everybody in 1980. It won't matter how high interest rates go, because nobody will want anything to do with bonds after the upcoming devastation. At the same time the bond bubble is pricked - the masses will begin looking for places to stick their rapidly depreciating dollars. This is where Gold & Silver go parabolic. 

 If you want to multiply your wealth, just like the banksters do - you will need to be long Gold & Silver before the pricking of the bond bubble. That way you are in before the masses start looking to get in - its really that simple.

  Still not convinced? OK. Guess who was buying those precious metals at generational lows all thru the 90's & early 2000's. Yep, the banksters. They loaded up on gold at $300 & silver at $4 for 15 years!! Greedy bastards, they are still buying today. They got long metals at fire sale prices in preparation for the upcoming bond market rout. Once the masses are scared out of their bond holdings like they were in the seventies, the financial elite will be there to dole out their metal hoard a little a time at prices that are multiples of where they trade today. The banksters  are looking to scoop both sides of both trades (bonds & pm's) just like they did in the early eighties.  

That is how winners play, and its the essence of the Great game. You are either pitching or your catching - there is no middle ground. If you are going to play the great game - you best do it like the banksters. They understand, its a rigged game - they do the rigging. Once you come to the same realization - that its a rigged game - investment decisions like dumping bonds and getting long physical Gold & Silver right NOW become no brainers. 




No comments:

Post a Comment