Down the Stretch They Come .....

   They are turning for home in the race for the Republican nomination for President & the accompanying right to savage the big O in next years election.  As this is written, Cain has a slight lead in the polls over Romney. There is a gap to third where its Gingrich, and then Paul. With less than 4 months until the nomination is decided, it seems clear the next president will come from this group.

  Cain.   Very difficult to determine if this guy has a real shot, or is he just the flavor of the month like Perry & Bachman before him. What is clear at this point, people like him.  Maybe its the catchy 9-9-9 plan, after all, Americans love to be marketed. He speaks with conviction too, which goes a long way.  He is an exceptionally skilled businessman.  For example, he currently has a healthy slice of the electorate convinced we need a national sales tax. Can you imagine the skill (and chutzpah) involved in selling the American people on the idea of a national sales tax? Thats like selling sand to the Arabs. Bagholder cannot believe his eyes.
  Cain has done it by dangling two juicy looking cherries - 9% corporate tax & 9% personal income tax. For the record,  the economy would flourish under those conditions. The fly in the ointment however, is the national sales tax.  Right now Gman has two sources of income - the corporate tax and the income tax. A national sales tax gives them a third tap on our money. It would almost be tolerable, if the rates were required to stay at 9-9-9. In reality though, once the sales tax is passed, it is only a matter of time until they start changing the rates - for the worse. This is why Cain and his 9-9-9 will ultimately be found wanting.  Current odds 6-1

  Paul.   In words of one syllable: He would shrink the size and scope of Gman the most. That fact alone is enough reason to elect him.  Ron Paul is  a man before his time. People will look back a generation from now and see the wisdom in his words they can't see today. Thats the thing about genius, its rarely recognized immediately.  It takes time for the slow witted masses to catch on to the wisdom.
   In the meantime  Ron "the 13th floor" Paul gets no help from the media, no money from the establishment, and no respect from his peers. He is clearly the most distinguishable candidate on many fronts as reported here.
   While the media might attack the statements & Ideas of the other candidates, they rarely attack the other candidates personally, like they do with Paul. The "Name calling" treatment, it seems, is reserved solely for Paul.   I have heard him called almost every slanderous name there is like crazy - looney - nutty - insane, the list is endless. They don't dare address his ideas, they just attack him personally.  The reason for this is obvious. Paul, and his Ideas represent a direct threat to the establishment.
  The way the "haves" see it, Paul must be stopped.  So the media breaks off some disrespect for Paul by branding him a lunatic every chance they get. Sad, really. Current odds 99-1

   Gingrich.  The only reason this guy is still in the race is thanks to his skill as a debater.  In this regard he is way ahead of his competitors. Most of them (when they are not repeating sound bites) struggle to string together two nouns and a verb in a complete sentence, Obama included.  Newt, on the other hand, has full command of adjectives & adverbs which makes him extremely persuasive when he speaks. He eloquently states the conservative case with extreme vigor, and in a concise manner. For those who don't know him, he is very likable, at first gaze.
  The real problem with Newt is the dark personal history. It will turn a lot of people off.  He also has the added problem of being the only candidate who will not siphon large chunks of votes from traditionally democratic constituencies. I'm sure Cain could pull in more than the 7% of African American votes Mcain pulled.  I'm sure Paul could pull the anti-war/pro drug crowd from the D's. Romney seems to poll the best among women. But there is no group on the Democratic side from whom Newt will pull votes.
  When you factor in Newt's personal baggage, with the fact he will have to unite conservatives (cause he sure aint getting any liberal votes) like never before - suddenly the advantages of his articulate manner  & acerbic wit seem minimized. Current odds 5-2

  Romney. Seems like its his nomination to lose. One by One all the other candidates have had their day in the sunlight, which was followed by a sharp drop in the polls as the electorate sized them up (see Bachman & Perry) and said No Thanks. Romney has consistently polled at or near the top of the field. He has the most money and the strongest organization. This makes him  the obvious choice of the "haves".  Traditionally the GOP has always given the nomination in turn. Its Romney's turn now, just like it was Mcain's turn 4 years ago.
   While he is the odds on favorite to get the nomination, of all the candidates listed here he will struggle the most against Obama in the general election because there really is no discernible difference between him & Obama. They are both holier than thou, disingenuous policy hacks who will grow government spending to unprecedented levels because they both fundamentally believe more Gman is the solution to everything.  While Romney would deny that with words, his deeds would say differently.  He implemented socialized medicine, supported tarp & the bailouts, and increased taxes.  This hypocrisy will cost him dearly in the general election.   Current odds are 7-5

  Obama.  At some point, he has to own this economy. Any of the other four are more than capable of hanging the economic albatross around Obama's neck.  His road back to the white house looks increasingly tougher to navigate precisely because of the stagnant economy. History would suggest his chances are slim, at best. He does have the full support of his party and complete access to a sizable campaign war-chest. He also gets a bye into the finals - unlike the other four who will continue beating each other up. He also has many rich & powerful friends. The value of these should not be underestimated.
  In spite of all those things, we here at mytwocent$ are of the opinion Romney is the only one Obama could beat in the general election. Even that would require some divine intervention as the economy would have to be rebounding sharply by this time next year. That hardly seems plausible when you consider the Obama administrations  record of economic ineptitude over the last 3 years. The road for Obama to hoe gets even tougher when you consider a few groups (young, independents,  & hispanics) who went big for him 4 years ago are abandoning him in droves today. Current odds are 6-5