One of the Greats....

      History was made today as Major league Baseball has a new all time Saves leader.  The title now belongs to Mariano Rivera. As a closer, The guy has been absolutely lights out for a decade and a half.  602 saves is an amazing record, even more so when you consider Mariano has only 38 career blown saves. Thats 94% success rate. He is a surefire first ballot hall of famer. 

   Bagholder has never been much of a Yankee fan. In fact, in my Bookie days - I had several clients who religiously pounded the Yankees. I can't begin to describe the psychological pain of having money against the Yankees, then watching Mariano take the hill with a Yankee lead late in the game. It meant the game was over, before it was over - and everybody involved knew it.  The outs were just a formality.   

    One of the things that separates the good from the great is how they perform when it matters the most. In Playoffs, Mariano has 49 wins & saves against only One loss. Look it up. Bagholder has been a lifelong Cubs/Dbacks fan, which means we don't get post season games where I come from very often.  In my lifetime, the Cubs have not been to a world series while the Diamondbacks have only been to one. As fate would have it, the one was in 2001 against Mariano & the Yankees. 

    Bagholder was blessed to have attended Game 7.  A couple of greats in their own right started that day, Curt Schilling went for the Dbacks, Roger Clemens started for the Yankees. Pitchers duel the whole way until Alfonso Soriano hit a Home run giving the Yankees the lead late in the Game. The silence in the stadium after that home run, was the eeriest moment of my life. 50,000 Dback fans were gutted with one swing. Morale was non-existent as we  all knew Rivera was going to pitch the ninth.  

 In one of lifes little ironies, Bagholder had no financial interest in the game that day. I was however, emotionally invested, as a Dback fan. The pain of watching him take the mound in the ninth was worse than the pain of the Countless times I was on the wrong side of his saves as a bookie. When you are a fan, and your team loses a big one - it takes a little piece of your soul, leaving behind this small empty place, filled with what could have been.  Losing money pales in comparison.

   At that point in his career Mariano had NEVER lost a post season game. In storybook fashion, that Dback team came back in the bottom of the ninth to beat Mariano & the Yankees. It is the only post-season loss of his stellar career and Bagholder is one of only 50,000 people who saw it live.   Hard to believe its been ten years already.  

   Mariano looks the same today as the day he came in the league. Virtually un-hittable. Absolute money, when it counts. Our hats are off To Mariano, to give credit where credit is due. He is the best the game has ever seen. It would be a pleasure to see him deal for many more years. 

I, for one, won't bet against him. 

Other than Ron Paul....

When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads.
Ron Paul 

Other than Ron Paul, there isn't one candidate in the field who would change the imperialistic ways of the USA. He is the only candidate who has correctly identified the root cause of 9/11 as being our military presence in too many places where it does not belong. It seems anymore, our nations natural state, is to be at war. We are in 3 now, that we know of - all with no end in sight. You don't see terrorists flying planes into Chinese buildings, or Australian buildings, or Canadian buildings. Its because those countries aren't imposing their way of life on others thru military force. Anyone who is intellectually honest would agree. The fact none of the other candidates in the race would dare admit our imperialistic ways are the root cause of 9/11, speaks volumes about how beholden the others are to the military-industrial complex which controls this country today. 

Other than Ron Paul, there isn't one candidate in the field who is a believer in the "Austrian school of economics". The other candidates as well as the people who run this country today are all Keynesians. They all see our economy thru the Keynes model, which means they do not possess the requisite intellectual understanding necessary to grow our economy.  They are simply not free market people. They are all about government control rather than allow the guiding hand of the free market to dictate progress. Its bad enough Government is this nations largest employer, but those government jobs pay on average 40% more than their private sector equivalent. Is it any wonder the economy blows?

Other than Ron Paul, there isn't one candidate in the field who correctly understands the root cause of our economic malaise is the absence of sound money.  The system we have now is completely corrupted. Allowing the FED the power to just create more money as needed, means more will always be needed, and thus more will be created. Its just human nature. Creating more $$ devalues the existing $$. This is why a Mcdonalds cup of coffee which cost 20 cents in the seventies cost $2.00 today. Its the very same reason Gold will continue to outperform every other asset class on the planet for at least the next decade. Ron Paul understands this, and has for years. Look at his portfolio, looks just like Bagholders.  

Other than Ron Paul, there isn't one candidate in the field who would end the drug war (with legalization & regulation). The other candidates all are believers in the current system of throwing billions of $$ at the problem in the form of police, prosecutors, judges, and of course, prisons. There is a large constituency of people who have a stake in growing the drug war.  They all (except Paul) feed at this trough, even though intellectually, morally and philosophically, ending the drug war is the right thing to do. Then again, unless you are Ron Paul, right never enters the equation. The others are all obligated to the powers which got them where they are today. That is why they all take the intellectually disingenuous position of growing the drug war. 

Other than Ron Paul, there isn't one candidate in the field who would significantly shrink the size & scope of Gman. He is intent on dismantling the powers of the federal government and transferring that power to states and individuals. He is a champion of states rights & individual liberty; while the others are all champions of more government. Oh sure, they will all cut in various areas - but on the whole - Paul is the only one who would dare shrink the size of Government like is commensurate with the problem. Government is a natural inhibitor to economic growth. You want widespread poverty, growing unemployment, falling wages, and rising prices - then grow government. Shrink government, and those things go away. Reagan understood it, Paul seems to be the only one in this years crop who gets it. 

Other than Ron Paul, there isn't one candidate in the field who would actually bring change to Washington. The other candidates are all slaves to the current system of expanding government. The idea that there is any significant difference between Democrat &  Republican is absurd. Sure, there is a difference where each side directs the government cash machine; but the bottom line is both sides (R & D) grow government in scope and size.. This is what distinguishes Ron Paul from all the others. Paul is intent on shrinking government on a scale not seen (or dreamt of) in our life.  The powers that be in this country do not want his election. This is why he gets almost no attention in the national media. The attention he does get usually has the MSM labeling him a lunatic. That fact there, is reason enough to learn about the guy. 

Come to think of it, other than Ron Paul, there isn't one candidate in the field worth endorsing. 

By the numbers

Most folks look at the current dollar price of Gold & Silver and think, Wow thats high. We here at mytwocent$ like to let the numbers be the judge.... 

There are roughly 5 billion ounces of Gold above ground at roughly $2000 the ounce means Gold is a 10 trillion dollar market.

There are roughly 1.25 billion ounces of silver above ground at roughly $40 means Silver is a 50 billion dollar market. 

Several things jump out when looking at the above two sentences. First, above ground gold is 4 times as plentiful as silver. So if gold is priced fairly at $1850 - one could argue based on availability silver should be $7400 the ounce. Yes, you read that correctly.

Second, the 10 trillion dollar Gold market is 200x the size of the paltry $50 billion silver market. Considering the two metals are found in the earths crust at a 15-1 ratio AND above ground silver is already rarer than Gold then silver at $650 the ounce would make the silver market 1/15th the size of the current  Gold market.  

 According to Gmans own website in March 1933 there was 20 Billion dollars in circulation, which was justified by Gmans decree making Gold $35/oz. A similar ratio today with 4.4 trillion in circulation (250 fold increase from 1933) gives a Dollar price today of $7700/oz.

 In 1935 a Barrel of oil was 67 cents, today its $90. Thats a 134 fold increase. The same for Gold would put it North of $4700. 

In the 1930's Gold & the dow traded at a 1 for 1 ratio, same thing was true in 1980.  To reach that ratio today - Assuming the Dow is fairly priced, Gold would have to trade over $11,300 the Oz. 

 In terms of percentage of global assets, from 1921 - 1981 Gold & Gold Mining shares averaged 26% of worldwide assets. Even at these "outrageously high gold prices" today, that number today is 1.5% (source: Erste group). So just to return to the historical average valuation for gold would require a 17 fold increase from here… $31,000/oz - for those scoring at home. 

The last 11 years, Gold has returned 20% per year, that pace puts the dollar Gold price at $16,500 sometime around 2020.  To be blunt, Bagholder believes this $16,500 estimate to be too Low. Price appreciation rate is always quicker in the second half of Bull markets. 20% per year will be pedestrian the next decade. 

The Idea that we could discover a new Gold mine tomorrow which would flood the market with new supply of Goldis absurd. All gold mined last year combined, added less than 1% to the existing above ground supply. Even if they discovered a new mine that would produce double what the richest mine produces today; that 1% yearly figure would still not be breached. In math terms, the new mines production is statistically insignificant. Besides, depending on the country where its discovered, the best case is it would be open in 10 years, worst case is it never gets opened. 

The silver price chart for the last 30 years is one giant "cup" of 30 years with a "handle" of 5 months (so far). Edwards & Magee (technical analysts extraordinaire) would say that from the bottom of the cup to the top is a 1600% increase, therefore after the breakout above $50, silver has a green light to $800/oz (that is a 1600% increase which equals the size of the cup). 

The current Gold bull market is ten years old, the two biggest corrections so far are 29% in 2008 and 23% in 2006. By comparison the 1970's bull had corrections of 39% &  52% along the way. This speaks to the tremendous underlying strength of & gargantuan size of,  the current bull specimen. The reason the corrections this time around have been shallow is because it has been under steady accumulation by those of us in the know. Before it gives up the ghost a decade from now - there will be multiple 50% off sales.  Only the staunchest bulls will pass that test.

Bagholder is firmly on the record as stating Silver will trade  with 4 digits to the left of the decimal & gold will trade with 5 - both before 2020. 

Harmless Idolatry

Bagholder can remember the exact moment in childhood when he first realized, that while the world (in a physical sense) may be black & white, the people within - are Gray. Butch Cassidy & the Sundance kid were to blame.  They are such likable guys, yet they are criminals. Therein lies the rub. It is a bit of a psychological epiphany as a child to realize:  not all bad guys wear black, not all good guys wear white, and of course, all people are a mix of both good and bad.  From the moment Butch won a knife fight - without a knife - Bagholder has had a morbid fascination with Bad guys. What follows are my top ten villains with whom I hold a strong personal connection, despite the fact they are all cold blooded murderous psychopaths…….  

- Jack Torrance. The appeal of this character is he is very much an ordinary guy, who slowly descends into insanity. He is no mastermind, he is not an egomaniac, and he is not an arch criminal. In fact, nothing in particular turns him into a cold blooded killer.  His is more of a slide into the abyss which is so gradual - its almost as though it could easily happen to you or I. 

- Lex Luthor. Hackman's version of Lex in the Superman movies was a delightful mix of megalomaniac, egomaniac, and haughtiness. Most of the names on this list have oversized egos - but in that regard this guy is in a class by himself. Egomaniacs are a joy to behold, precisely because they are their own worst enemy. This life requires balance - the Lex Luthor types have none in their world. Its really inevitable that he does himself in. 

- Lord Vader. There was no bigger bad-ass on the planet in the late 70's. He was a supremely gifted, yet lost soul unable to properly harness his talents. Worse yet, he fell under the auspices of someone more capable of harnessing (and utilizing) those natural gifts.  The Black robe & mask helped conceal Lord Vaders  internal struggles, while also magnifying his image as a badass. His direct, concise, efficient means in achieving ends is the stuff of greatness. 

- Michael Corleone. A man of few words, and fewer actions - but those actions spoke volumes.  His cold, calculating, ruthless manner and an razor-sharp insight into human nature Kept him two steps ahead of his enemies. He was not a particularly good soldier, but he was a helluva General. A true "big picture" guy. 

- Omar Lyttle. You just have to love someone who beats the scum of the earth drug dealers at their own game - and doing it with a code. Like Omar said: "Yo, never hurt nobody, wasn't in the game". Unlike the others on this list, he only killed to survive. To some, that makes him morally superior. Its funny, a lot of what he was able to do - was because of his reputation and the fact he understood the threat of violence is always stronger than its use. 

- Paulie Walnuts. A complete moral reprobate, if there ever was one. Mafia Killer with the same intellect, same wisdom, and same hierarchy of needs as the average 8th grade male. His most endearing quality is he sees the world as black and white - much like a kid. He is particularly interesting to watch because he has NO scruples & life is gray.  

- Kahn - There should be a picture of this guy in the dictionary under ambition. Exceptionally intelligent, well educated, genetically superior and yet unable to govern several of the deadlies (primarily pride and wrath). It seems fitting that despite all his genetic gifts, his unchecked ego was his downfall. He was truly, a worthy adversary for someone (Kirk) cruising the cosmos. 

- Tony Montana. There is something to be admired about someone who works their way up the food chain one rung at a time. Unlike Michael Corleone, Tony was a better soldier than a general. His problem was he didn't know any limits - in anything. Still, you have to admire someone who knew what he wanted & went out and got it. 

- The Joker.  His is perhaps the loosest grip on reality - but I'm not one to hold that against a guy.  For all his faults, he did know how to have fun. Like any genius, he had a way with words and was most fluent in sarcasm. To me though, the real draw of the character was his irreverent manner and the fact he thought BIG.  He had a natural gift for forcing people outside their comfort zones - one of Bagholders favorite pastimes. 

- Dexter.  An excellent tactician, who does his homework, and executes with extreme cunning - thats a dangerous combination. He is A true predator. He channels his inner demons towards ridding the world of his fellow predators. It is seemingly a noble goal, executed in a manner that is both righteous and just.   Whats not to like?

Quiz winner!!!

For the second Month in a row - Lord Vader has captured the Mytwocents Quiz with a perfect 12 of 12 score. Congratulations are due, he has grown his Silver position. Bagholder was of the opinion this was an easy quiz, as it turned out it was more difficult than I imagined.  Here are the correct answers along with a brief explanation:

1. Paul - Tea party = smaller government, no taxes, no wars, balanced budget. While Bachman supporters would like to claim the tea party mantle, fact is she has voted for UNbalanced budgets & Increased troops in Iraq - while Paul voted NO on all wars & has never voted for a tax increase or unbalanced budget in his 23 years. 

2. Bachman - She gets the most with the least. The fact she is even in the running with her paper thin resume speaks to her Savvy.

3. Perry. This guy is George Bush less 20 IQ points (and we know W. didn't have too many to spare)

4. Romney - Harvard MBA - need I say more. 

5. Palin  The most skilled is the one who can lie while connecting with people on a personal level, such that they don't care about the lie. Clinton had it, Reagan had it, and so does Palin. 

6. Paul. This one was a hand out - there is no other name in the conversation. You want to turn Washington upside down, this is the guy.

7. Obama - His record speaks for itself. I could see an argument for Perry here too. 

8. Perry - This one isn't close either - have you seen his college transcript?

9. Palin - She has the Broadest appeal (no pun intended). Even if Obama wins the election - he won't carry the most states. Of course, she has to get the nomination first. 

10. Bachman - The Romans used to feed christian fundamentalists to starved lions, because they thought it just. Some of her religious utterances, are downright scary - for those of us living in reality.  Bagholder, being a big picture guy, would overlook this religious frailty & vote for her in a second.

11. Romney - The only real business man in the group, besides the only thing missing is the diamond pinkie ring

12. Obama - Another no-brainer. Someone who has driven the economy off a cliff has to be less qualified to get behind the wheel again than any of the 5 who didn't.

Vice Management

For a loser, Vegas is the meanest town on earth.  ~Hunter S. Thompson

As someone with more than his share of gamble, bagholder will be ushering in the new NFL season next weekend from the posh confines of Caesars Palace, Las Vegas. Seems only right to kickoff the new season in a Roman environment as NFL Football is the closest thing we have to Roman Gladiators.  While the NFL doesn't offer the blood, guts, and gore of ancient Rome, there is just enough violence to quench the more animalistic thirsts of the average American Male. 

Las Vegas holds a special place, deep in Bagholder's heart. Back in the day, Greyhound bus tickets were $12, rooms at Binions were $15, two room service omelets & pot of coffee with tip - $20.  We used to sit in the sportsbook on a gambling budget of less than $100 and bet football & horses all weekend, with a roll of quarters handy (for tipping the waitress bringing free beers) . Oh yeah, and ten cent craps. Ahhh the good old days. As an experienced veteran of weekend benders in Vegas here are some helpful hints for you rookies….

1. Set a gambling budget and stick to it. As childish as it sounds, it guarantees there will be more weekend benders in the future. 

2. Be caught up on sleep before heading to Vegas. If you are short of sleep and then head to Vegas, your chances of managing your roll wisely are low; add alcohol and/or drugs into the equation, and those chances are  nonexistent. 

3. Stay hydrated. Water is your friend. The dry air, the desert heat, the casino oxygen & the Alcohol all conspire to deprive your immune system of its most vital lubricant.

4. Leave the kids home. It is not a family town. Las Vegas is 24/7 debauchery on display for all to see, including your kids.  

5.  Any given weekend, there are a dozen good shows worth seeing. LV isn't all about the gambling, they do have top shelf entertainment

6.  Don't upset the locals. This cannot be underestimated. While you are there to "cry havoc" they Live there. Be respectful. 

7. While they tell you drinks are free at the tables, it takes time to get them there.  During that time, your roll is exposed - so really - they are not free. Believe me, Bagholder has ordered more than his share of four figure Heinekens. The reason alcohol is free is because it impairs judgement, the one thing you need to keep your money. 

8. 99.6% of the hot looking women who look you in the eye & smile, are WORKING. Bagholder believes you have a god-given right to skewer $1000/hr working girls, if that is your thing.  Be warned though, with this subtle nuance: While you are eyeing their valuables, they too are eyeing your valuables.

9. Eat well. Breakfast - omelet house (corner rancho & charleston) - the spartacus rocks.  Lunch - for the last 25 years it was the Stage Deli at ceasars, now that its closed - the American Grille at the Rio will do fine - the oysters rockefeller  wow. Dinner - Hugo's Cellar at the 4 queens, everything on the menu is good - has an old Vegas feel - for the nostalgics out there. 

10. Expect to lose. All gaming in Vegas - except poker - has a negative expectation value  (-EV for short).   This means, the more gambling you do - the greater your chances of losing.

So one of the keys to occasionally beating Vegas is to eat like a king, enjoy the shows, party like a rock star, smoke good cigars, ogle women, and NO long sessions at the tables/machines. But  rather, take your whole gambling budget and make 1 big bet. Something roughly 50-50 like the NFL, gives you 3 hours of rock solid entertainment for your bet & about half the time, you will go home a winner - if thats the only gambling you do. As any veteran of Las Vegas will tell you, going home a winner about half the time puts you miles ahead of most people. 

If we keep buying it, they will keep selling it.

  Bagholder believes we live in a world where  justice, more often than not, is served.  The universe, as a whole, has and requires balance. Those who choose to close their eyes to both history and reality are punished, while those who SEE reality as it is (not as you are told) are rewarded. If you can see through the fog of lies foisted upon us by the financial media - then success in the financial markets is easy. Understanding the motives of those who control markets is key to believing what you see, instead of falling prey to what you hear. 

What follows are 9 themes sold to us on a daily basis by the mainstream financial media. The visual evidence all these things are lies is overwhelming, and yet, people still believe. Then again, like the proverb says - there are none so blind as those who will not see. 

 Bonds are a safe. Right now 10 year treasuries return less than 2%. At that rate your money doubles in roughly 36 years. Who in their right mind would lend Gman a $1,000 today for $2,000 in the year 2047. Any sentient being can see inflation would erode the purchasing power of your bonds, for which the paltry return does not cover. In otherwords, bondholders are losing purchasing power. Does that sound "safe" to you?

  No inflation in consumer prices - says Gman. Do you believe what you are told or do you believe your own eyes when you walk thru the grocery store?  Bernanke & his minions get on TV and tell the people how inflation is only 1 percent per year. With 1 percent per year increase in prices it would take 70 years for that box of cheerios to double in price. In Bagholders reality, when he considers the rates of which box sizes are going down AND prices going up, Inflation is 5-10 times what Gman claims. Their motives for understating inflation are obvious, the lower the inflation rate - the less Gman has to pay those suckling on the government teat. 

 Gold is risky. How many times have you heard that? Where exactly could you have bought gold in the last decade - and been at risk? With no counter-party risk,  Gold is the safest asset on the planet. There is no risk  in owning something, the value of which is immune from theft via counterfeiting. The same cannot be said of your beloved paper dollars/stocks/bonds. Again the motives are obvious, labeling gold as risky keeps people OUT of Gold and IN the more controllable paper markets. 

 Diversification is key to success in the financial markets. This is a losers mentality. Losers divide their monetary soldiers into multiple areas, so they don't go broke. Notice how those who buy into the diversification mantra are focused on not losing instead of winning. While those who see reality as it is identify the right side of a  SINGLE market using our eyes - and then concentrate resources accordingly. That is how winners play. 

Gold is Volatile, they say. Psychologically speaking, most folks can't handle volatility.  The extremes can be crushing.  That is exactly why they try to associate gold with volatility. While we are told gold is volatile, we use our eyes to see Gold has been up 11 years in a row. Is that volatility, or is it something going up in value. As usual, we are told one thing, and reality is another. 

Unemployment is 9%. What a crock of shit. John Williams at Shadowstats claims actual unemployment (if measured the same as in the 1970's) right now is over 22%. Rigging numbers lower than they actually are is something of a specialty of Gman. This helps make the lies more believable.  What is most disturbing about the staggeringly high actual unemployment is it won't get any better until real wages paid in this country come down. This fact is never talked about, anywhere. 

Housing prices have stabilized….or so we are told. With our eyes we see massive backlog of inventory. Little or no demand.  Asking prices falling. Interest rates with nowhere to go except up. Fewer qualified buyers.  There is no visual evidence housing prices have bottomed. In fact , Bagholder is on the record stating housing prices will continue to fall in real terms until your average middle class home trades for 5 ounces of Gold - or 100 ounces of silver. 

Gold is in a bubble. This one cracks me up the most. The temerity of the lie is breath taking. They have been telling us for YEARS now about the gold bubble, yet bubbles exhibit certain elements our eyes do not see. Where is the widespread public participation, or the people leveraging their way in, or parabolic advances in price? There cannot be a bubble without these things. Again we hear one thing and see another.

 QE3 is needed. If a man invents a thermometer that reads cold in July & hot in January, he is deemed a failure. For some reason this doesn't apply to bankers. QE1 was implemented & failed, QE2 was implemented & failed. Is this not the thermometer which reads cold in July? We look around and see failure, yet are told we need more of it. The motivation behind QE3 is to enrich the suits on wall street. Just like QE1 & QE2, the end result will be to impoverish the working class even further. 

  In all these cases, the powers that be have a reason to perpetuate the lies. Propoganda is nothing new. It has been so for centuries.  So it will be today.  History does indeed, repeat.  Our leaders will continue to preach the above lies, all the while printing the dollar into oblivion. The simplest way to stop the suits from robbing your purchasing power is to buy Gold. End of story. 

Quiz time!! Win a Silver Eagle!!

With the Iowa straw poll thinning the Republican field a bit, It seems there are maybe 5 contenders for the 2012 crown. I guess 6, if you count Sarah. In the spirit of get to know your candidates, there are 12 questions - each must be answered with one of the following choices:

A. Bachmann

B. Palin

C. Paul

D. Perry

E. Romney

F. Obama

   The first person who posts in the comment section ALL 12 correct answers as judged by your host, Bagholder - will get a 1 ounce .999 fine US Silver Eagle Fedexed to your door. Have fun...

1. Who has a  platform most in-line with the tea party?

2. Who is the most savvy, politically?

3. If elected who would damage the country the most? 

4. Who is the most ethically challenged?

5. Who is the most skilled Liar?

6. Who would shrink government debt the most?

7. Who would grow government debt the most?

8. Intellectually, who has the dimmest bulb?

9. Who carries the most states in 2012?

10. As for religious beliefs, who is the most extreme?

11. Who would make the best used car salesman?

12. Who is the least qualified?

  Sorry, almost forgot...there are 12 questions with 6 possible answers....so to be fair & balanced we used each answer twice.......

How many times you gotta be told?

  Corporate America just wasn't for me. Bagholder's lone venture into corporate America was as a teenager (pre-internet days) working at a call center for a major Hotel chain. In a 40 hour week we would routinely handle 4000+ phone calls to get about 800 reservations. In those days, average room was $50 times 800 reservations meant each agent routinely typed up $40,000 worth of business per week while getting paid about $400. As a corporate drone, I dreamt of ways to turn those 4000 calls into $40,000 for me, instead of a faceless corporation…. 

 As luck would have it, Bagholder was working on that very problem one Friday in September just before week 1 of the NFL football season when the phone rings. Guy with a heavy foreign accent says "bet the Broncos" - and then hangs up. Most folks I know would just dismiss the call as a prank, Then laugh Sunday night when they happen to notice the Broncos won. Oh well, life goes on….

 Week 2 Friday night, phone rings again - guy says "bet the Vikings" - and then hangs up. Anyone who has been on this planet for more than 10 minutes knows "If the world tells you something, you listen". Bagholder goes long the Vikings right here. Most normal folks at this point, would still dismiss the call as as a prank - but make no mistake; they will go looking for that Vikings score on Sunday.  Sure enough the Vikings win.

 Week 3 Friday, phone rings. At this point most folks would begin looking the gift horse in the mouth - with something like "WHO IS THIS?". But the voice says "Bet the Raiders" & hangs up.  Most folks would still do nothing, but a healthy percentage of people would find a way to get a Benji or two down on the Raiders. Even the ones who don't bet will keep an eye on the Raiders - who of course, win. 

 Week 4. If you are like Bagholder, come week 4 you are sitting next to your phone waiting for the call. It comes with the words "Bet the Browns". Anyone who bet week three will be upping the sperm count this time. Those who didn't bet week three have to be questioning themselves. Some of those will rationalize along the lines of : This guy has been right 3 weeks in a row, I should try it. Browns win.  

 

 Week 5. There are people I know, who after being handed 4 winners in a row, would be emptying their checking accounts (fck the mortgage) after the phone rings with "bet the Rams". To be fair, there is a large percentage of people at this point who would still not bet the Rams, for a myriad of reasons - most of them psychological. Maybe they don't have gamble in them, or they are to lazy to make a bet, or perhaps they just do not believe. No matter, Rams win.

 Week 6 Call comes "bet the Colts". Those emptying their checking accounts last week are now paying their mortgage AND pounding the Colts. The ranks of the non-believers are shrinking as more and more people, after being told 5 times in a row, begin to listen.  Think about most men you know and how they would react in this situation. After being given 5 consecutive winners half the men I know would be betting the Colts - many of those would be wagering $$ well outside their comfort zones. Its OK, because Colts win.

 Week 7 Call says "bet the Lions". Many guys, including yours truly, would be booking suites at Caesars Palace by week 7.  Meanwhile the non-believers rationalize away the pain of lost opportunities with thoughts like: This is not possible, nobody could have information like this, why are they sharing with me, this is crazy, etc… Then again, how many times do you, as an individual, need to be told something before you listen? five, six, seven?  …. Oh, Lions win.

 Week 8 By now, there are some people to whom that Friday night phone call is a Religion. Their worlds revolve around that voice on the phone which says "Bet the Eagles".  Some folks I know would be doubling up their bets every week, while others would now be emptying their brokerage accounts for wagering capital. Meanwhile the non believer pool shrinks some more as all but the most stubborn non-believers start to listen and bet the Eagles.  Eagles win.

 Week 9  Phone call comes, guy says "I've given you 8 winners in a row, I can't carry you forever - this is the last winner you get for free. Next week you wire me 10 grand or we don't talk again. Got it? Now, bet the Jets." The non believers are screaming "I knew it, its a scam, they just wanted my money". While all that may be true - the voice gave 8 winners in a row. In short, he produced. In fact, make that 9 as the Jets win. 

  At this point there are a couple of questions which need addressing: 

What week would you climb on board?

Would you wire the money for the week 10 call? 

 For the record, Bagholder would wire the 10k.

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   While you might think the above scenario could never happen, all that is required is a devious mind willing to make exactly 4096 phone calls week one - telling half to bet the broncos & the other half bet their opponents. Because the broncos won, come week 2 you call only the 2048 people who were tipped the "broncos" and tell half to bet the vikings & the other half to bet their opponent. Repeat until after week 9. By then you will have handed 9 winners in a row to 8 different people (some of whom have elevated you to GOD status). Assume 1/2 are astounded enough to cough up the money for a week 10 pick, and that is how you turn 4000+ phone calls into $40,000.  

Disclaimer: Do not try this at home…. For the record, the above tale is complete fiction - bagholder knows nothing about the list of 5000 Gamblers Anonymous members whose phone numbers went missing back in the 80's.

The Worm gets his due

"I'm not one of those leeching sons of bitches. I want to earn everything I get."  Dennis Rodman  This weekend the NBA is inducting the "Worm" - aka Dennis Rodman into the NBA Hall of Fame. As a 30 year fan of NBA Basketball, we here at mytwocent$ would say Rodman is the best rebounder to have played the game in the last 3 decades. In fact, there really isn't another name in the conversation for best rebounder - thats how far he is ahead of the competition.     Rodman was very undersized relative to most NBA rebounding greats. The reason he succeeded in the land of the giants was because he had the heart of a champion, a nonstop motor, a very high basketball IQ, and a desire to do the dirty work.  Not only was he a world class rebounder, but he was a versatile defender who routinely shut down some of the games best frontcourt players. We also believe putting him on the court with MJ & Pippen, is the best three headed defensive monster the NBA has ever seen.  Rodman gave 110% effort every time he was on the court, while his off the court persona, left a little to be desired. The tattoos, piercings, and tantrums were about as rebellious as could be back then. Of course he never did anything half-way - that is part of what made him successful in the NBA. We are of the opinion, his efforts on the court were more than enough to punch his ticket into the hall. As for his escapades off the court, well lets just say - He is living proof, image isn't everything.

"For five years I've felt like the best prostitute in a high-class whorehouse. But all the other girls get paid more than I do."  Dennis Rodman